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FINAL DRAFT Cross-Chapter Paper 7 IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report

2 Cross-Chapter Paper 7: Tropical Forests

4 Cross-Chapter Paper Leads: Jean Pierre Ometto (Brazil), Felix Kanungwe Kalaba (Zambia)

6 Cross-Chapter Paper Authors: Gusti Zakaria Anshari (Indonesia), Noemí Chacón (Venezuela), Aidan
7 Farrell (Trinidad and Tobago/Ireland), Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Henry Neufeldt
8 (Denmark/Germany), Raman Sukumar (India).

10 Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Christa Anderson (USA), Craig Beatty (United States of
11 America/Canada), Nirmal Bhagabati (USA), Ana Felicien (Venezuela), Gabrielle Kissinger (Canada), David
12 M. Lapola (Brazil), Felipe S. Pacheco (Brazil), Pablo Pacheco (USA/Bolivia), Sandeep Pulla (India), Yong
13 Yut Trisurat (Thailand)

15 Cross-Chapter Paper Review Editor: Avelino Gumersindo Suarez Rodriguez (Cuba)

17 Date of Draft: 1 October 2021

19 Notes: TSU Compiled Version

22 Table of Contents

24 Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................2

25 CCP7.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................4

26 CCP7.2 The Current State of Tropical Forests........................................................................................5

27 CCP7.2.1 Distribution and Biodiversity of Tropical Forest Ecosystems................................................7

28 CCP7.2.2 Rates of Deforestation, Tropical Reforestation and Connections to Climate Resilience of

29 Tropical Forests......................................................................................................................7

30 CCP7.2.3 Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation .................................................................8

31 CCP7.3 Current and Projected Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Forests (Drought,

32 Temperature, Extreme Events).............................................................................................................10

33 CCP7.3.1 Tropical Tree Physiological Responses to Climate Change ................................................10

34 CCP7.3.2 Climate-Related Mortality and Regeneration in Tropical Forests.......................................11

35 CCP7.3.3 Fire Risks from Climate Change in Tropical Forests...........................................................12

36 CCP7.3.4 Current climate risks for tropical forests .............................................................................13

37 CCP7.3.5 Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forest...................................................13

38 CCP7.3.6 Climate Responses to Tropical Deforestation and Links to Forest Resilience.....................14

39 CCP7.4 Social-Economical Vulnerabilities of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Living in

40 Tropical Forests ......................................................................................................................................15

41 Box CCP7.1: Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge and Community-Based Adaptation .........16

42 CCP7.5 Adaptation Options, Costs, and Benefits ..................................................................................18

43 CCP7.5.1 Adaptation Options at Different Scales ...............................................................................19

44 CCP7.5.2 Adaptation Response Options...............................................................................................20

45 CCP7.5.3 Costs......................................................................................................................................22

46 CCP7.5.4 Benefits..................................................................................................................................23

47 CCP7.5.5 Strategic Approaches to Combine Response Options...........................................................23

48 Box CCP7.2 Contribution of sustainable tropical forest management to the SDGs ..........................30
49 CCP7.6 Governance of tropical forests for resilience and adaptation to climate change........................34
50 FAQ CCP7.1: How is climate change affecting tropical forests and what can we do to protect and

51 increase their resilience?........................................................................................................................39

52 References .......................................................................................................................................................41

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1 Executive Summary

3 Over 420 million ha of forest were lost to deforestation from 1990 to 2020; more than 90% of that loss
4 took place in tropical areas (high confidence), threatening biodiversity, environmental services,
5 livelihoods of forest communities and resilience to climate shocks (high confidence1). Forty five percent
6 of the world's forested areas are in the tropics, and they are amongst the most important regulators of
7 regional and global climate, natural carbon sinks and the most significant repositories of terrestrial biomass.
8 They are of immeasurable value to biodiversity, ecosystem services, social and cultural identities,
9 livelihoods, and climate change adaptation and mitigation {CCP7.2.1; CCP7.2.2; Box CCP7.2; Table
10 CCP7.2}

12 Climate change affects tropical forests through warming and increased occurrence of extreme events
13 such as droughts and heat waves, as well as more frequent fires, which increase tree mortality and
14 reduce tree growth, limiting the ability of forests to regenerate (high confidence). Climate change is
15 altering the structure and species composition of tropical tree communities (high confidence), including
16 transitions from moist to drier forest in regions such as the Amazon (high confidence), and movement of
17 species from lower to higher elevations (high confidence). Despite CO2 fertilization, ongoing climate change
18 has weakened the carbon sink potential of tropical forests in Amazonia and, to a lesser extent, in Africa and
19 Asia (medium confidence). {CCP7.2.3; CCP7.3}

21 Large-scale tropical deforestation affects regional to continental scale climates with significant
22 impacts on forest resilience (high confidence). Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances
23 temperatures with effects depending on scales (high confidence), while often increasing surface runoff
24 (medium confidence). Continued deforestation-driven landscape drying and fragmentation will aggravate fire
25 risk and reduce forest resilience, leading to savannization of the tropical forest biomes, in particular in
26 combination with climate change (high confidence). {CCP7.3.6}

28 Implementing sustainable management strategies can improve the ability of tropical forest ecosystems
29 to adapt to climate change (high confidence), and the benefits of adaptation interventions often
30 outweigh the costs (medium confidence). Adaptation of tropical forests to climate change provides an
31 opportunity for tropical countries to develop forest policies that create incentives for environmental services
32 such as carbon storage and biodiversity refugia. Forest restoration using a diverse mix of native species can
33 help rebuild the climate resilience of tropical forests, but is best implemented alongside other sustainable
34 forest management strategies and adaptation interventions (high confidence) {CCP7.5; Box CCP7.1}

36 Community-based adaptation, built on Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and Local Knowledge (LK) over
37 centuries or millennia, is often identified as an effective adaptation strategy to climate change (high
38 confidence). For successful adaptation of tropical forest communities, it is vital to consider IK and LK in
39 addition to modern scientific approaches, together with consideration of non-climatic vulnerabilities (e.g.,
40 poverty, gender inequality and power asymmetries) (high confidence) Climate change vulnerability and
41 adaptive capacity have a historical and geopolitical context, conditioned by value systems and development
42 models. Transformative and sustainable practices are required for effective management of tropical forests
43 (high confidence) {CCP7.4; Box CCP7.1}

45 Building resilience of tropical forests to climate change relies on adaptation in combination with
46 reduction of direct and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (high confidence).
47 Tropical deforestation is largely driven by agriculture, both from subsistence farming and industrial
48 agriculture (e.g., oil palm, timber plantations, soybeans, livestock) (high confidence). While poverty and
49 population growth combined with poor governance fuel subsistence agriculture (high confidence), industrial
50 agriculture is often driven by international market forces for commodities and large-scale land acquisitions
51 (high confidence). {CCP7.2.3}

1 In this Report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust;
and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very
low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and
agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of
agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.

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1 Governance responses to addressing the direct and underlying drivers of deforestation have been
2 inadequate to reduce pressures, yet the complexity of tackling drivers of forest loss and degradation is
3 increasing as climate impacts on forests and ecosystems increase (high confidence). Transformative
4 levers towards improving environmental governance and resilience of tropical forests include: incentivizing
5 and building capacity for environmental responsibility and discontinuing harmful subsidies and
6 disincentives; reforming segmented decision-making to promote integration across sectors and jurisdictions;
7 pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary actions; managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the
8 face of uncertainty and complexity; strengthening environmental laws and policies and their implementation;
9 acknowledging land tenure and rights; and inclusive stakeholder participation (medium confidence).
10 {CCP7.6}

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1 CCP7.1 Introduction

3 Climate change is already impacting tropical forests around the world, including through distributional shifts
4 of forest biomes, changes in species composition, biomass, pests and diseases and increase in forest fires
5 (high confidence). These impacts are often compounded by non-climatic factors such as conversion of land
6 for other uses, burning to clear land, mining, and road and infrastructure development. It is notable that,
7 despite societal awareness and financial opportunities to restore forests (Brancalion and Chazdon 2017),
8 tropical forests are increasingly threatened. For instance, the conversion of tropical forests to large-scale
9 agricultural production (mainly soybeans, oil palm, maize, cotton, livestock), is amongst the strongest
10 drivers of species richness decline of both flora and fauna, thereby impacting the adaptation opportunities of
11 ecosystems and local people to climate change (IPBES 2018). Reducing direct and indirect drivers of
12 deforestation and forest degradation is therefore critical to building, maintaining or enhancing the resilience
13 of tropical forests against climate and non-climate drivers alike (high confidence).

15 With climate change-related drivers becoming increasingly important in the future, changes to tropical
16 forests will most likely2 be aggravated overall, although some tropical forests may temporarily benefit,
17 physiologically, from higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. To the degree to which
18 forests are affected by climate change and other drivers, their resilience against these stressors is diminishing
19 leading to a reduction in the regulating, supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services they
20 provide (Alroy 2017; Cadman et al. 2017; Pörtner et al. 2021) (Chapter 2) (high confidence). This, in turn, is
21 affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people who depend on forests and their products, in
22 particular forest dwelling communities, but also, via the teleconnections between forests and surrounding
23 areas of influence, in socio-ecological systems outside the forests themselves.

25 While strong mitigation efforts are fundamental to minimizing future climate impacts on forests, forest
26 management can be improved in many places in support of enhancing the resilience of tropical forests, often
27 with significant co-benefits for carbon storage, biodiversity, food security and ecosystem services (high
28 confidence). Sustainable management practices allow forests to be utilized, frequently with equally high or
29 even higher productivity levels, while keeping their core functions intact. While there are numerous
30 approaches to managing forests and forest landscapes sustainably, an element that appears to be critical are
31 property rights and tenure arrangements allowing stewards of the land, including Indigenous Peoples,
32 securing long-term access and utilization of forest resources (medium confidence) (Rahman and Alam 2016
33 and Naughton-Treves 2014).

35 The interconnections of climate risks and non-climate drivers facing tropical forests, their impacts on rates
36 and extent of deforestation and forest degradation, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, leading to
37 unsecured human well-being, contrasts with the sustainable forest management on protecting forest
38 ecosystems and enhancing their resilience against these drivers are framed in Figure CCP7.1. The conceptual
39 framework not only illustrates the complexity and scale of the challenge, but also provides opportunities to
40 mitigate impacts at different scales, whereas eliminating the underlying drivers, both climate and non-
41 climate related, must be the goal of policies and measures at global, national and subnational levels,
42 involving state and non-state actors alike.

2 In this Report, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result:
Virtually certain 99100% probability, Very likely 90100%, Likely 66100%, About as likely as not 3366%,
Unlikely 033%, Very unlikely 010%, and Exceptionally unlikely 01%. Additional terms (Extremely likely: 95
100%, More likely than not >50100%, and Extremely unlikely 05%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed
likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely). This Report also uses the term `likely range' to indicate that the
assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17-83% probability range.

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2 Figure CCP7.1: Impacts of climate change and human disturbances on tropical forests lead to high risk of biodiversity
3 loss and uncertainty of livelihoods for the majority of forest dependent communities (left side). Good forest governance
4 would increase the resilience of tropical forest through better adaptation and mitigation to climate change (right side)

7 Building on what has been presented in IPCC AR5, SR15, and SRCCL, section 7.2 of this Cross-Chapter
8 Paper first briefly describes the types and extent of tropical forest ecosystems and then looks at current rates
9 and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. Section 7.3 presents current and projected climate
10 change impacts on tropical trees and forests, focusing primarily on drought, heat and fires, looking from
11 physiological responses to risks, projected climate change impact, and forest resilience. Section 7.4
12 addresses the impacts of climate change and tropical forest destruction on the livelihoods and well-being of
13 communities and peoples living in or being strongly dependent upon tropical forests. This section includes a
14 Box on Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge and Community-based Adaptation. Section 7.5
15 assesses adaptation options for the sustainable management of tropical forests drawing upon the protection,
16 management and restoration framework, and includes a Box on the connection between sustainable forest
17 management and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Section 7.6, finally, assesses
18 opportunities and challenges of tropical forest governance to maintain and enhance resilience against climate
19 change impacts on forests.

22 CCP7.2 The Current State of Tropical Forests

24 In the most recent Global Ecological Zones map produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
25 for the year 2010, tropical vegetation has been defined as encompassing regions which are frost-free during
26 all months in the year (FAO 2012). Further, the tropical vegetation has been sub-classified into tropical
27 rainforest, tropical moist forest, tropical dry forest, tropical shrubland, tropical desert, and tropical mountain
28 systems based on climate in combination with vegetation physiognomy and orographic zone (Table
29 SMCCP7.1). IPCC has used the basic FAO classification in its National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
30 Guidelines (IPCC 2019).

32 Since the FAO ecological zones represent potential biome extents, the present area under forest is assessed
33 using the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover dataset (ESA 2017). The ESA

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1 dataset provides a direct mapping to IPCC land categories (e.g., "forest"), allowing for standardized and
2 consistent reporting of existing forest and forest gain/loss in each ecological zone. The most extensive
3 tropical ecological zone is the tropical rainforest (1,459 Mha or about 25% of all tropical ecological zones),
4 followed by tropical desert (which is not further considered here), tropical moist forest, tropical shrubland,
5 tropical dry forest and tropical mountain system (Table CCP7.1; Figure CCP7.2). Mangroves are not
6 explicitly considered in the FAO classification. Tropical rainforest occurs largely in South America, Africa,
7 and South and South East Asia, and is the most intact tropical forest biome (Table CCP7.1). Significant
8 portions of tropical moist forest, which abuts tropical rainforest in many regions but experience a longer dry
9 season, have been lost in most regions (Table CCP7.2). Tropical moist forest typically grades into the
10 highly-threatened tropical dry forest ecological zone, of which only about a third exists under forest cover at
11 present. Only about 44% of tropical mountain systems, which occur approximately above 1000 m above
12 mean sea level, are presently under forest cover. While the FAO classification provides the potential tropical
13 ecological zones (roughly, "vegetation types"), there are large differences in the extents of global tropical
14 forest biomes which are still remaining as reported by different sources (Sayre et al. 2020; Ocón et al. 2021).
15 These differences result from differences in biome definition, data source, the definition of "forest," and the
16 method used for classifying remotely-sensed data. For example, the reported global area of tropical dry
17 forests ranges from 105 Mha to 645 Mha (Pan et al. 2013; Bastin et al. 2017; Ocón et al. 2021).

21 Figure CCP7.2: Colours represent tropical ecological zones as defined by the FAO (FAO 2012) Areas classified as

22 "Forest" in the 2020 ESA Land Cover CCI Product (ESA 2017) are overlaid in grey.

25 Table CCP7.1: Areas in tropical ecological zones as defined by the FAO (FAO 2012). 1Existing forest represents areas
26 classified as "Forest" in the 2020 ESA Land Cover CCI Product (ESA 2017). All units are in million hectares, except

27 where indicated.

Ecological Africa South North Asia Australia Oceania Global Existing Existing
zone America America forest1
forest
(%)1

Tropical 48 323 3 13 1459 1140 78.2
399 659

rainforest

Tropical moist 43 139 0 0 1077 509 47.3
464 428

forest

Tropical dry 39 143 67 0 784 236 30.0
366 167

forest

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Tropical 595 11 0 116 85 0 808 60 7.4

shrubland

Tropical desert 871 13 0 269 141 0 1296 6 0.4

Tropical 16 90 0 2 443 194 43.9
mountain 147 188

system

3 CCP7.2.1 Distribution and Biodiversity of Tropical Forest Ecosystems

5 Tropical forests are indisputably the areas with highest biological diversity on Earth, both in absolute and

6 density (species per area) terms (Plotkin et al. 2000). Estimates account that tropical forests harbor half or

7 even more of world's biodiversity (Kier et al. 2009; Jenkins et al. 2013), even though this figure is highly
8 uncertain owing to varying estimates of undescribed species (Mora et al. 2011). For example, it is estimated
9 that there are at least 40,000, but possibly more than 53,000 tree species in tropical forests (Slik et al. 2015).
10 A vast majority of this biodiversity and Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge associated with its use
11 remains poorly explored, presenting a vast unlocked genetic reserve at risk of loss, although many of today's
12 important medicines, foods, and ecosystem products originate from tropical forests (Kouznetsov and Amado
13 Torres 2008; Calderon et al. 2009), staple foods (Brondízio 2008; Isendahl 2011) (Maia and Mourão 2016).

15 Rates of global biodiversity loss in the past few decades have accelerated to levels that are, for some taxa,
16 approaching the estimated rate of 75% of taxa extinction found in Earth's "big five" mass extinction events
17 (Barnosky et al. 2011) (Díaz et al. 2019) (Davison et al., 2021). Even though species-area relationships tend
18 to overestimate extinction rates (He and Hubbell 2011). , there is evidence that species richness in tropical

19 forests is alarmingly approaching or surpassing the taxa extinction value in this period (45% for dung
20 beetles, 51% for lizards, 65% for ants, and 80% for mammals) should deforestation and habitat loss continue
21 at the current pace (Alroy 2017) (Ceballos et al. 2017). Moreover, there is reasonable understanding that
22 these numbers are underestimated and, as such, tropical forest loss and degradation alone will precipitate a

23 sixth mass extinction event (Giam 2017). A total of 13 out of the 25 global biodiversity hotspots for
24 conservation are located in tropical forests, such as Brazil's Atlantic Forest and India's Western Ghats/Sri
25 Lanka (Myers et al. 2000). While forest loss and degradation have been the main cause of tropical
26 biodiversity loss in the past, climate change now arises as a major threat not only for individual tropical
27 forest species or taxa as already observed for frogs (Pounds et al. 2006) - but for whole communities
28 (Esquivel-Muelbert et al. 2019), and even entire tropical forest ecoregions (Lapola et al. 2018).

30 CCP7.2.2 Rates of Deforestation, Tropical Reforestation and Connections to Climate Resilience of

31 Tropical Forests

33 More than 420 million ha of forest were lost globally in the 1990-2020 period due to deforestation, and more
34 than 90% of that loss took place in tropical areas (FAO 2020). For the 2015-2020 period, the tropical
35 deforestation rate decreased compared to 2010-2015, being estimated at 10.2 Mha yr-1 (FAO 2020). But

36 reforestation and afforestation rates have also decreased, resulting in a tropical forests net loss rate of 7.3
37 Mha yr-1 in the 2015-2020 period. Overall, the net loss rate has slightly decreased (-4%) since 1990 (high
38 confidence). However, a particularly high upward trend is observed in Central America and the Caribbean
39 while a small increase (2%) is observed in the tropical zone of Africa, during the periods from 2010-2015 to

40 2015-2020 (see Table CPP7.2).

43 Table CCP7.2: Trends in net tropical forest loss, reforestation and expansion rates (1000 ha yr-1) from 2010-2015 to
44 2015-2020 periods by regions.

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2 Table Notes:
3 Details on the Table CCP7.2 elaboration are provided in the Supplementary Material (SMCCP7.1)

6 CCP7.2.3 Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation

8 Deforestation and forest degradation both affect carbon stocks, biodiversity loss and the provision of
9 ecosystem services, leading to a reduction in resilience to climate change and exacerbating forest landscape
10 vulnerability even in the absence of direct anthropogenic action (high confidence) (Barlow et al. 2016;
11 Aleixo et al. 2019; X. Feng et al. 2021; Saatchi et al. 2021). There is also clear evidence of deforestation
12 influencing temperatures and the hydrological cycle at local to regional scales resulting in reduced
13 precipitation and evaporation and increased runoff relative to unaffected areas (high confidence) [CCP7.3.6]
14 (Jia et al. 2019; Douville et al. 2021). Negative trends in biodiversity and ecosystems are predicted to
15 undermine 80% of the Sustainable Development Goals targets related to poverty, hunger, health, water,
16 cities, climate, oceans and land(IPBES 2019). Therefore, besides GHG mitigation, reducing the driving
17 forces leading to deforestation and forest degradation is of the utmost importance for forest resilience,
18 biodiversity protection, avoiding regional climatic changes and the provision of critical ecosystem services,
19 and communities whose livelihoods depend on forests (high confidence) (Curtis et al. 2018; IPBES 2019; Jia
20 et al. 2019; Seymour and Harris 2019; Pörtner et al. 2021; Saatchi et al. 2021).

22 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation can be distinguished between proximate (i.e. direct) and
23 underlying (i.e. indirect). Direct drivers, such as agriculture (including crops, livestock and plantation
24 forestry), infrastructure development (which often provides access to intact forests and catalyzes
25 deforestation), or timber extraction, are place-based and visible. They are influenced by underlying driving
26 forces, such as demographic, economic, technological, political and institutional, or cultural factors, which
27 typically form complex interactions and act at multiple scales, frequently without any direct connection to
28 the areas of forest loss (Geist and Lambin 2002).

30 Agriculture is by far the largest direct driver of tropical deforestation, with great differences between
31 commercial and subsistence farming and large variation across regions (Figure CCP7.3). Over 80% of
32 tropical deforestation between 2000 and 2010 was caused by agriculture, proportionally ranging from ca.
33 75% in Africa and Asia to ca. 95% in the Americas (FAO and UNEP 2020), but both the scale of

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1 deforestation and the relative contribution of different drivers have changed considerably over time (high
2 confidence) (Hosonuma et al. 2012; Curtis et al. 2018; Seymour and Harris 2019; FAO and UNEP 2020).

6 Figure CCP7.3: Primary drivers of forest cover loss for the period 2001 to 2015. Darker color intensity indicates
7 greater total quantity of forest cover loss. While some tropical forest cover loss is temporary, a large portion is related
8 to deforestation. Source: (Curtis et al. 2018). Reprinted with permission from AAAS.

11 Forest degradation is more difficult to track, but can have large negative effects on carbon storage, provision
12 of ecosystem services, and biodiversity (B. W. Griscom et al. 2017; Houghton and Nassikas 2017). A recent
13 analysis suggests that forest degradation is increasing and is now surpassing deforestation rates in the
14 Brazilian Amazon (Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi et al. 2020). As with deforestation, drivers of forest
15 degradation differ by region, such that timber extraction was by far the most important degradation driver in
16 Latin America and Asia, whereas in Africa wood fuel consumption contributed to about half of forest
17 degradation between 2000 and 2010 (Hosonuma et al. 2012).

19 Though not as visible as direct drivers, indirect or underlying causes can greatly influence direct drivers, and
20 must be addressed to reduce pressures on forests (high confidence) (e.g. FAO 2016b; Fehlenberg et al. 2017;
21 Pendrill et al. 2019b; Bos et al. 2020; Junquera et al. 2020; Ken et al. 2020; Kissinger 2020; Siqueira-Gay et
22 al. 2020; Hoang and Kanemoto 2021). Next to population growth, poverty and insecure land tenure (Ariti et
23 al. 2015; Arevalo 2016; FAO 2016a; Ken et al. 2020; Siqueira-Gay et al. 2020; Verma et al. 2021), many
24 developing tropical countries identify weak forest sector governance and institutions, lack of cross-sectoral
25 coordination, and illegal activity (related to weak enforcement) as critical underlying drivers (FAO 2016a;
26 Ken et al. 2020; Kissinger 2020) [CCP7.6].

28 International and market forces, particularly commodity markets and, increasingly, large-scale land
29 acquisitions are also key underlying drivers (high confidence) (Assunção et al. 2015; Henders et al. 2015;
30 Conigliani et al. 2018; Ingalls et al. 2018; Garrett et al. 2019; Pendrill et al. 2019b; Kissinger 2020; Neef
31 2020; Hoang and Kanemoto 2021) [WG2 Chapter 5.13]. Deforestation related to commodity imports is
32 increasing, illustrating the growing influence of global markets in deforestation dynamics (Henders et al.
33 2015). Although some of this production is consumed domestically, 2939% of deforestation was driven by
34 international trade, primarily from Europe, China, the Middle East and North America (Pendrill et al.
35 2019a). While many developed countries, China and India have achieved net domestic forest gains, their
36 consumption patterns have increased deforestation embodied in their imports to varying degrees, frequently
37 from biodiversity hotspots (Hoang and Kanemoto 2021). Fifty percent (50%) of the biodiversity loss
38 associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting et
39 al. 2017). The increasing prominence of medium- and large-scale clearings of forest between 20002012,

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1 particularly in Southeast Asia and South America suggests the growing need for policy interventions

2 targeting industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers (Austin et al. 2017). However, countries have

3 been slow to address underlying drivers such as international demand for agricultural commodities. A review

4 of 43 countries' REDD+ readiness documents found that proposed policy interventions largely missed the

5 agricultural drivers identified (Salvini et al. 2014). An assessment of policy responses to rubber and coffee

6 production highlights the challenges governments face in identifying correlations between the direct drivers

7 and related underlying drivers, with international drivers being the most challenging to address (Kissinger

8 2020).

11 CCP7.3 Current and Projected Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Forests (Drought,

12 Temperature, Extreme Events)

14 While early dynamic global vegetation models predicted biome shifts and contractions of tropical forests,

15 more recent efforts have focused on biome changes at more regional scales, or on functional aspects of

16 tropical forests, such as plant physiological and phenological changes, drought-related mortality, population

17 dynamics, interspecies interactions and community responses, ecohydrology, risk of fire and related impacts,

18 soil nutrient and microbe-plant interactions. Climate change is expected to increase temperatures across the

19 tropics, with attendant variability in rainfall, and more extreme events such as intense storms, droughts and

20 wildfires (Zelazowski et al. 2011; Malhi et al. 2014; Brando et al. 2019). This could be expected to have

21 structural and functional impacts on tropical forest biomes (Malhi et al. 2014; Adams et al. 2017). This

22 section looks at responses of tropical trees and forests to current and future climate-change related pressures,

23 focusing on physiological responses including growth, mortality and regeneration, fire risk, and ecological

24 vulnerability, as well as on climate effects of tropical forest loss.

26 CCP7.3.1 Tropical Tree Physiological Responses to Climate Change

28 With rising temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide, possibly accompanied by greater variability in soil

29 moisture availability, a key question is how tropical forest trees respond physiologically (especially

30 photosynthesis and respiration which determine net growth rates) and how well they can acclimate (i.e., able

31 to adapt) to climate change (Dusenge et al. 2019). Key climate factors influencing tree growth on pan-

32 tropical forests are precipitation, solar radiation, temperature amplitude and relative soil moisture (Wagner et

33 al. 2014).

35 The temperature response of photosynthetic carbon uptake in tropical trees seems remarkably similar across

36 moist and dry forest types as well as for light-demanding, fast-growing species compared to shade-tolerant,

37 slow-growing species (Slot and Winter 2017). It is generally agreed that photosynthesis in tropical species

38 can acclimate to moderate levels of warming but beyond this there would be no net gain in carbon (Slot and

39 Winter 2017). The factor that limits photosynthesis in different tropical forests will depend on water-

40 availability. In water-limited dry forests, photosynthesis may decline largely due to stomatal closure, while

41 in wet forests, the decline may largely be driven by warming-related changes to leaf biochemistry (Slot and

42 Winter 2017). A recent modelling approach suggests that the limits of photosynthetic thermal acclimation

43 may be an increase of about 2°C, in terms of maximum tolerated temperature, with enhanced tree mortality

44 beyond this level of warming (Sterck et al. 2016).

46 A critical concern for plant function has been that higher temperatures will enhance respiration rates,

47 potentially resulting in tropical forests becoming net carbon sources (rather than photosynthesis driven

48 carbon sinks) (Gatti et al. 2021). Some studies suggest that excessive respiration is less of a concern as

49 respiration rates can acclimate to elevated temperatures over time (Lombardozzi et al. 2015; Pau et al. 2018).

50 Thermal acclimation of respiration has been shown in a seasonally dry neotropical forest (Slot et al. 2014),

51 while models indicate that increases in plant respiration could halve by the end of the 21st century through

52 acclimation, thereby partly ameliorating the potential release of carbon from tropical forests (Vanderwel et

53 al. 2015). A contrary view is that plant physiological processes, such as the photosynthesis in tropical canopy

54 trees, are already functioning at levels close to or beyond their thermal optimum limits and that any further

55 temperature increase would turn them from a sink into a carbon source (Mau et al. 2018)

56 One of the most pressing questions regarding forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is

57 whether trees experience enhanced growth rates as a result of the so-called CO2 fertilization effect [Box 2.3

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1 in IPCC SRCCL]. Observed changes in the terrestrial carbon sink and process-based vegetation models
2 indicate that tropical vegetation response to CO2 fertilization (Schimel et al. 2015) is combined to other
3 factors such as nitrogen deposition and length of the growing season, while aerosol-induced cooling may
4 also have played a role in enhancing carbon sink [Box 2.3 in IPCC SRCCL]. Contrastingly, evidence for
5 CO2 fertilization of growth in individual tropical tree species is generally lacking or controversial (Silva and
6 Anand 2013), or not as substantial as expected (Sampaio et al. 2021). It is however widely agreed that the
7 intrinsic water-use efficiency of a tree, i.e. the amount of carbon assimilated as biomass per unit of water
8 used, increases under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels due to the regulation of stomata (cells on the leaf
9 surface which regulate the exchange of water and gases between the plant and the atmosphere) (Van Der
10 Sleen et al. 2015; Bartlett et al. 2016; Rahman and Alam 2016; Keeling et al. 2017). Tropical dry forests (c.
11 1000mm annual rainfall) exhibit changes in water-use efficiency (WUE), relative to CO2, at least twice as
12 much as do tropical moist forests (c. 4000mm rainfall) (Adams et al. 2019).

14 Other key components in the forest system are plant-microbe-soil nutrient interactions, which play major
15 roles in carbon cycling and plant photosynthetic response to increased atmospheric CO2 and warming
16 (Zhang et al. 2014; Singh and Singh 2015; Du et al. 2019). Phosphorus is generally a limiting factor in
17 tropical forest soils though this may be species-specific (Ellsworth et al. 2017; Turner et al. 2018).
18 Mycorrhizal fungi (both arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal) play major roles in water acquisition of host plant
19 and their responses to drought in dry tropical forest (Lehto and Zwiazek 2011) as well as in the capture and
20 transfer of nutrients, especially N (which may otherwise become limiting), to host plants. Climate change
21 factors can thus be expected to alter the nature of soil-plant interactions with consequences for the species
22 composition and biodiversity of tropical ecosystems (Pugnaire Francisco et al. ; Terrer et al. 2019)

24 CCP7.3.2 Climate-Related Mortality and Regeneration in Tropical Forests

26 Drought-related mortality of tropical trees shows complex patterns which could change forest community
27 structure and composition with cascading effects on biodiversity (McDowell et al. 2020). During drought,
28 the mortality rate is enhanced in larger-sized trees in tropical forests (as is the case with all forests globally)
29 with significant impacts on forest structure, carbon storage and regional hydrology (Bennett et al. 2015). The
30 mortality rate of neotropical moist forest trees appears to be consistently increasing since the 1980s
31 (McDowell et al. 2020) with plant functional types such as softwood, pioneer and evergreen species
32 suffering higher mortality during years of extreme drought (Aleixo et al. 2019). Large trees (>30 cm dbh) in
33 tropical dry forests have much lower mortality rates than those reported for tropical moist forests (Suresh et
34 al. 2010). Contrary to expectation, during prolonged droughts in these dry forests, deeper-rooted tree species
35 are more likely to die than shallow-rooted ones, which are more adapted to changes in soil moisture content,
36 because of water depletion in the deepest unsaturated zone (Chitra-Tarak et al. 2018).

38 Regeneration of tropical tree seedlings and their response to a changing climate is inadequately understood.
39 Experimental work suggests that tropical moist forest tree seedlings and saplings can acclimate
40 photosynthetically to moderate levels of warming and, unlike adults, may even exhibit increased growth
41 rates (Cheesman and Winter 2013; Slot and Winter 2018) Some moist forest seedlings also show plasticity to
42 recurrent drought episodes by enhancing their growth rates when favorable moisture conditions return, while
43 others fail to respond (O'Brien et al. 2017). The nature of response also seems to be mediated by
44 neighborhood diversity, with greater plasticity in more diverse communities (O'Brien et al. 2017). Seedlings
45 in tropical dry forests subject to burning show enhanced growth rates post-fire and within two years attain
46 similar height of seedlings in unburnt areas (Pulla et al. 2015), though the environmental drivers of seedling
47 growth post-fire are not well understood (Bhadouria et al. 2017).

49 The net outcome of the population dynamics processes of growth, mortality and regeneration is change in
50 species composition as a consequence of a changing climate. In the Amazon forests, dry habitat-affiliated
51 genera have become more abundant among the newly recruited trees, while the mortality of moist habitat-
52 affiliated genera has increased at places where the dry season has intensified most, thus driving a slow shift
53 towards a drier forest type (Esquivel-Muelbert et al. 2019). A similar multi-decadal shift in West-African
54 forest species composition towards more dry-affiliated species as a response to long-term drying has been
55 recorded (Aguirre-Gutiérrez et al. 2020). While upward shifts in the tree line and in the range of individual
56 tree species have been recorded at several temperate mountain regions, evidence from the tropics is rare. A
57 large-scale study from 200 plot inventories of >2000 tree species across a ~3000m elevation gradient in the

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1 Andean tropics and sub-tropics has shown that the relative abundances of tree species from lower, warmer
2 locations were increasing at these sites indicating that "thermophilization of vegetation" (increased
3 domination of plant species from warmer locations) was indeed taking place as expected (Fadrique et al.
4 2018) [Section 2.5.4.2.1 in Chapter 2].

6 CCP7.3.3 Fire Risks from Climate Change in Tropical Forests

8 Temperature rise and prolonged droughts increase the danger of fires in drained peatlands and tropical
9 forests in South East Asia and the Amazon (da Silva et al. 2018; Pan et al. 2018; Sullivan Martin et al.
10 2020), resulting in large carbon emissions, which reached 11.3 Tg CO2 per day during September-October
11 2015 (Huijnen et al. 2016; Yin et al. 2020) and changes in forest composition and biodiversity (Asner et al.
12 2000; Hoffmann et al. 2003) (high confidence). In many cases, tree mortality due to fire is poorly recorded in
13 the literature, but the available data suggests that fire-induced mortality has increased in recent years (Figure
14 CCP7.2) (Malhi et al. 2014; Brando et al. 2019) (high confidence). While large forest and peat fires used to
15 be associated mainly with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, there is now evidence that tropical
16 rainforests in Indonesia may experience higher fire danger from increased temperatures even during non-
17 drought years due to high evaporation rates of fragmented forests (Fernandes et al. 2017; McAlpine et al.
18 2018). The droughts of 2007 and 2010 in the Amazonian region caused 12% and 5% of the southeastern
19 Amazon forests to burn, respectively, as compared to <1% of these forests burning during non-drought years
20 (Brando et al. 2014; da Silva Júnior et al. 2019; Pontes-Lopes et al. 2021). Moreover, degraded forests in
21 Ghana are more vulnerable to fires during droughts (Dwomoh et al. 2019).

23 Factors other than solely climate also interact in enhancing the danger of tropical forest fires. For instance,
24 the extent of burned area of rainforests in Borneo has shown that subsurface hydrology, (i.e., hydrological
25 drought), interacts with meteorological drought and, hence, fires have become more intense in recent
26 decades following the progressive desiccation of the island over the past century (Taufik et al. 2017).
27 Bornean forest fire risk also increased through the interaction of drought with land use conversion for
28 logging, oil palm and tree plantations, and human settlements (Sloan et al. 2017). Similarly, simulations of
29 future fire risks in the Amazon show that extensive land use change under the RCP 8.5 scenario results in 4
30 to 28-fold enhanced area of forest burned by fire by 2080-2100, as compared to 1990-2010, whereas on a
31 RCP 4.5 scenario the area burned would be enhanced by 0.9 to 5.4-fold (Le Page et al. 2017).

34 CCP7-12 Total pages: 63

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1 Figure CCP7.4: Documented instances of tree mortality in tropical moist forests due to fire (1992-2016) and drought
2 (1982-2005). These occurrences were associated with anomalies in precipitation and temperature over the study period.
3 Adapted from (Brando et al. 2019).

6 CCP7.3.4 Current climate risks for tropical forests

8 Impacts of climate change on tropical forest cover seem to correlate with climatic zone. Natural selection of
9 drought tolerant species is observed in tropical dry forests under a prolonged water deficit environment (Stan
10 and Sanchez-Azofeifa 2019). Tropical montane forests are highly sensitive to warming and associated
11 changes in cloud cover and moisture, with evidence that such forests are already being impacted through
12 "browning" (loss of biomass) from increased warming since the 1990s (Krishnaswamy et al. 2014).

14 Besides higher temperatures, current climate risks also depend on regional responses to a variety of climate
15 events. For example, tropical biomes across the three continents may respond differently to ENSO events in
16 terms of carbon fluxes and balance. During the 2015-2016 ENSO event, different processes were dominant
17 for the carbon fluxes anomaly in the tropical regions. In Asian forests this anomaly was primarily derived
18 from enhanced fire occurrence, in African forests through increased ecosystem respiration (from higher
19 temperatures), and in South American forests by ecophysiological effects, through the gross primary
20 production (GPP) expressed as reduced carbon uptake (Liu et al. 2017; van Schaik et al. 2018). It has also
21 been shown that the probability of drought spells at the beginning and end of the rainy season is higher in the
22 areas with the highest deforestation (Leite-Filho et al. 2019). Furthermore, it has been observed that Amazon
23 rainforest resilience is being lost faster in regions with less rainfall and in parts of the rainforest that are
24 closer to human activity (IPCC 2014; Seiler et al. 2015) (CCP7.3.6). Conversely, it has been pointed out, on
25 the basis of vegetation indices, that temperature has a greater influence on resilience than does precipitation,
26 and tropical forests are more resilient to climate change when they are more diverse (Feng et al. 2021)
27 (CCP7.3.6).

29 Biomes such as seasonally dry tropical forests subject to higher variability in rainfall or other climatic factors
30 may be more resilient to fire and drought (Pulla et al. 2015; Liu et al. 2017), though there could be changes
31 in species distributions as a result of disturbances (Allen et al. 2017). A regime of long-term, high rainfall
32 variability seems to be critical in determining the overall resilience of tropical forests and savannas to
33 climate disturbances (Ciemer et al. 2019), highlighting the heterogeneity of the tropical landscape to climate
34 risk. Similarly, forest composition, nutrient limitations, and biodiversity can influence forest resilience to
35 disturbances. Recent evidence suggests that the degree of forest disturbance also affects the mechanisms
36 through which biodiversity influences forest functioning (Schmitt et al. 2020). Neotropical secondary forests
37 also showed high resilience by maintaining their biomass through high productivity and rates of recovery
38 following major disturbances (Poorter et al. 2016). However, the possibility of tropical forests reaching
39 "tipping points" in their resilience and experiencing rapid die-off cannot be ruled out (Verbesselt et al.
40 2016).

42 CCP7.3.5 Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forest

44 Climate change projections indicate increased warming and changes in rainfall patterns in the tropical region
45 as elsewhere globally (IPCC AR6 WG1). These would have impacts on carbon stocks (Mitchard 2018;
46 Hubau et al. 2020), water availability (Tamoffo et al. 2019), and structure and diversity (Malhi et al. 2014;
47 McDowell et al. 2020) in tropical forests, amplified by deforestation (CCP7.3.6).

49 Tropical forests are critical repositories of global carbon; living tropical trees are estimated to hold 200-300
50 Pg C or about one-third of the levels in the atmosphere (Mitchard 2018). CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System
51 Models (ESM) project an increasing future tropical carbon sink, which is particularly strong in the scenarios
52 with more pronounced increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (Koch et al. 2021). However, major
53 uncertainties regarding the ecophysiological processes governing carbon turnover and tree mortality under a
54 changing climate (Hartmann et al. 2015; Pugh et al. 2020), and the ecosystem-level responses of tropical
55 forests to elevated atmospheric CO2 (Körner 2009) explain the contrast between observational data and
56 modeling results (Rammig and Lapola 2021). Observational data show that structurally intact old-growth
57 tropical forests have been net sinks of atmospheric carbon in recent decades, but there is evidence that the

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1 capacity of such intact tropical forests to build up carbon stock may be limited as biomass peaked during the
2 1990s and has since weakened by 30% in the Amazon since the 1990s (high confidence), mainly due to
3 increased tree mortality and faster carbon turnover, and the African tropical forest sink following this trend
4 since about 2010 (Hubau et al. 2020; Gatti et al. 2021). From a peak pan-tropical (Amazonia, Africa and
5 Southeast Asia) forest sink of 1.26 Pg C yr-1 during the 1990s, it is projected to decline to an uptake of only
6 0.29 Pg C yr-1, reaching zero, in the Amazon, during the 2030s (Hubau et al. 2020). This decline will
7 possibly be driven by the reduced rates of forest carbon uptake from the weakening global CO2 fertilization
8 effect mediated by limiting soil nutrient, and reduced water availability and higher temperatures during
9 extreme droughts (Qie et al. 2017; Fleischer et al. 2019; Wang et al. 2020), reinforced by deforestation and
10 forest degradation [IPCC SRCCL, 2019].

12 Offline (uncoupled) vegetation models simulations indicate that the extensive tropical and subtropical forests
13 of the Americas could gradually transit towards a savanna-like vegetation with the most pronounced shifts
14 (of up to 600km northward) from relatively stable forests to savanna-forest transitions occurring in the
15 eastern Amazonian region (Huntingford et al. 2013; Anadon et al. 2014; Nobre et al. 2016) depending
16 largely on the yet uncertain strength of the CO2 fertilization effect and future dry season length, with
17 important feedbacks on the flux of moisture from the forest to the atmosphere (Delphine Clara Zemp et al.
18 2017). More limited simulations for Central American rainforests under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also support a
19 transition in some areas to lower biomass tropical dry forest and savanna-like vegetation (Lyra et al. 2017).
20 Such transitions from one biome type to another will cause major changes in forest structure, species
21 compositions and overall biodiversity. Additionally, the difficulty of species to migrate through highly
22 fragmented tropical forested regions (such as West Africa or South and Southeast Asia) and "non-analogue
23 climates", under a climate change scenario, poses extra pressure on tropical biodiversity to adapt and survive
24 (Pörtner et al. 2021). Even in expansive tracts of forests such as in the Amazon, climate change is expected
25 to become more important than deforestation by 2050 in causing the loss of tree species (Gomes et al. 2019).
26 Tropical mountain biodiversity hotspots (e.g., Andes, Himalayas) are particularly vulnerable to species loss
27 due to elevation range shifts (Sekercioglu et al. 2008). Under a 2°C increase scenario, a substantial reduction
28 of tropical montane cloud forest in Kenya is estimated (Los et al. 2019).

30 CCP7.3.6 Climate Responses to Tropical Deforestation and Links to Forest Resilience

32 Since AR5 there has been meaningful advancement in understanding the climate effects of deforestation and
33 concomitant changes in forest ecosystem resilience. The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land
34 (Jia et al. 2019) and IPCC AR6 WG1 (Douville et al. 2021) both describe significant climate-related changes
35 resulting from tropical deforestation (high confidence).

37 Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances temperatures and landscape dryness; effects that
38 increase with the scale of forest loss, whereas reforestation and afforestation generally reverses these effects
39 (high confidence) (Lawrence and Vandecar 2015; Alkama and Cescatti 2016; Khanna et al. 2017; Jia et al.
40 2019; Staal et al. 2020; Douville et al. 2021; Hofmann et al. 2021; Leite-Filho et al. 2021). There is also
41 medium evidence from observations and modeling that deforestation enhances surface runoff (Douville et al.
42 2021). Whereas quantitative information is much more limited for other tropical regions, past deforestation
43 in the Amazon has led to a small reduction in rainfall of -2.3 to -1.3%, shortening and delay of the wet
44 season, and an estimated 4% increase in dryness (Leite-Filho et al. 2020; Staal et al. 2020; Douville et al.
45 2021).

47 Modeling studies estimate that large-scale tropical deforestation will contribute to average warming of the
48 deforested areas with +0.61 ± 0.48°C and will lead to large changes in diurnal temperature ranges due to a
49 reduction of nocturnal cooling (medium confidence) (Jia et al. 2019). Large-scale deforestation will also
50 strongly decrease average regional precipitation and evapotranspiration and further delay the onset of the wet
51 season, enhancing the chance of dry spells and intensifying dry seasons, but the magnitude of the decline
52 depends on the scale and type of land-cover change (high confidence) (Delphine Clara Zemp et al. 2017; Jia
53 et al. 2019; Douville et al. 2021; Gatti et al. 2021).

55 Continued forest landscape drying and fragmentation in connection with deforestation may also enhance
56 surface flow variability (Farinosi et al. 2019; Souza et al. 2019) and will aggravate the risk of forest dieback
57 (D. C. Zemp et al. 2017), elevate forest flammability (Alencar et al. 2015) and increase fire incidence (high

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1 confidence) (Aragão et al. 2018; Jia et al. 2019; Silveira et al. 2020; dos Reis et al. 2021), ultimately leading

2 to savannization of many tropical rainforests (Sales et al. 2020). However, compositional heterogeneity and

3 diversity of forest assemblages increases resilience against climate-enhanced forest degradation (Réjou-

4 Méchain et al. 2021).

6 For the Amazon, deforestation (ca. 40% of the region) in combination with climate change will raise the

7 prospect of passing a tipping point leading to large-scale savannization of the rainforest biome, but but
8 uncertain remains that this will take place in the 21st century (Nobre et al. 2016; Jia et al. 2019; Douville et

9 al. 2021). However, considering that the Amazon has already lost ca. 20% of its forests (Nobre et al. 2016),

10 crossing the tipping point may not only create savannas of the deforested parts but may also result in

11 precipitation reductions of 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon due to a breakdown of the

12 South American monsoonal circulation and the subsequent western cascade of precipitation and

13 evapotranspiration (Boers et al. 2017). Other effects of forest degradation include loss of ecosystem services,

14 biodiversity, carbon storage, and indigenous culture (Watson et al. 2018; Strassburg et al. 2019; Gatti et al.

15 2021), as well as potentially reduced hydropower capacity and agricultural production (Sumila et al. 2017)

16 and increases in tropical diseases (Husnina et al. 2019).

18 The dearth of data for tropical forest regions other than the Amazon makes assessments of deforestation-

19 related changes in temperature, precipitation and streamflow difficult (high confidence) and hampers

20 estimates of tropical forest ecosystem health, biodiversity loss and vulnerability to current and future

21 climatic and other pressures (high confidence). There is, hence, a strong need for increased investment in

22 relevant data and research to narrow the knowledge gaps (Davison et al. 2021). Nonetheless, conclusions

23 based on a newly developed tropical vulnerability index synthesizing remotely sensed land use and climate

24 information indicate that forests in the Americas are already reaching critical levels to multiple stressors,

25 while forests in Asia reveal vulnerability primarily to land-use change and African forests still show relative

26 resilience to climate change (Saatchi et al. 2021).

29 CCP7.4 Social-Economical Vulnerabilities of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Living

30 in Tropical Forests

32 Around 800 million people live in or in the immediate vicinity of tropical forests (Keenan 2015). Short-term

33 impacts of climate change on biodiversity will exacerbate the inequalities affecting those livelihoods which

34 heavily rely on forests (Pörtner et al. 2021).

36 Livelihoods, gender, land use change and dependency on forest resources for food, fuel, housing and other

37 needs have been identified as key elements of vulnerability in Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in

38 Africa and South America (high confidence) (Nkem et al. 2013; Field et al. 2014; Newton et al. 2016; Pearse

39 2017; IPBES 2018; Pörtner et al. 2021). Socio- economic vulnerability varies depending on the level of

40 dependency of forest food consumption (Rowland et al. 2017), livelihood strategies and settlement patterns.

41 In Cameroon (Nkem et al. 2013), nomadic hunter-gatherers and sedentary communities showed differences in

42 their vulnerability, driven by their preferences in forest settlement locations for farming, hunting, fishing,

43 gathering, trapping, and maintaining livestock.

45 Increasing temperatures, extreme climatic events, drought and fire will affect the proportion and frequency of

46 forest resources availability. In communities of tropical America, Asia and Africa, social vulnerability factors

47 identified include: deforestation pressures for agriculture expansion to cope with climate-induced food

48 shortages, conflicts over access to forest land as a result of uncontrolled fire induced by higher drought

49 frequency and severity, the availability of wild game, the work capacity, and the time consumed in work and

50 gender-based differences (Blaser and Organization 2011; Bele et al. 2013; IPCC 2014). Although the size and

51 quality of harvest in crops and Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) will be affected, the literature reports the

52 use of NTFPs, hunting, and fishing is less sensitive to climate change, and relevant for household incomes

53 (Bele et al. 2013; Djoudi et al. 2013; Newton et al. 2016; Onyekuru and Marchant 2016). Data from tropical

54 forests document the contribution of NTFPs to local livelihoods (Issaka 2018), with well-established NTFPs

55 such as Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa), Rattan (Calamus and Daemonorops species), Rubber (Hevea species),

56 Açai (Euterpe oleracea) showing promise for sustainable harvesting strategies which could reduce socio-

57 economic vulnerability (Blaser et al. 2021).

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2 The decrease of tropical forest area due to land use change will put additional pressures, threatening livelihood
3 practices, traditional land arrangements, and customary rights of forest-dependent communities and impacting
4 the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of Climate action and Life on Land (Djoudi and Brockhaus 2011;
5 Tiani et al. 2015; Hurlbert et al. 2019). Globalized trade relations, agricultural expansion, illegal activities and
6 violent conflicts have been identified as important non-climatic drivers of forest degradation (high confidence)
7 (Barr and Sayer 2012; Rist et al. 2012; Shanley et al. 2012; Ruiz-Mallén et al. 2017; IPBES 2018; IPBES et
8 al. 2018). Globally, about 70% of tropical forest areas occur outside protected areas. In Latin America and the
9 Caribbean, Indigenous Peoples and local communities have predominant ownership of tropical forest lands,
10 while in West and Central Africa and Asia, forested areas are largely State-owned with exacerbating problems
11 of governance, inequity and conflict with customary land tenure systems (Blaser and Organization 2011).

13 Further research by experts and local stakeholders and Indigenous Peoples is required to design more accurate
14 and comprehensive indicators (Huong et al. 2019). Solid evidence shows important knowledge and
15 experiences that Indigenous Peoples and local communities contribute to disaster risk reduction and
16 management (IPBES 2018a). Recognizing the land rights of Indigenous Peoples is among the most cost-
17 effective actions to address climate and biodiversity risks, according to FAO and FILAC (2021). In Indigenous
18 Peoples' forest lands in the Amazon basin, deforestation rates are up to 50% lower than in other forested areas
19 (Ding et al. 2016), and indigenous management is correlated with reduced carbon emissions (Blackman and
20 Veit 2018). Indigenous authors and local authors have pointed out the role of traditional systems of
21 governance, knowledge and belief systems in the resilience of Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in
22 the Amazonian and Andean region, by regulating seed access and the conservation of agrobiodiversity and
23 tropical forest (Camico et al. 2021; Panduro Meléndez et al. 2021). In Philippines, the traditional land use
24 system Muyong, promote sustainable agroforestry management based on customary land laws (Camacho et
25 al. 2016). Participation of local stakeholders and the inclusion of a gender perspective contribute to prioritizing
26 resource allocation and the development of effective legal frameworks for adaptation (Shah et al. 2013; Tiani
27 et al. 2015; Ihalainen et al. 2017; Collantes et al. 2018). There is a need to combine quantitative and qualitative
28 methods, and increase research efforts to integrated approaches; including multiscalar and interdisciplinary
29 assessments of vulnerability (Djoudi et al. 2013; Guidi et al. 2018; FAO and CIFOR 2019).

32 [START BOX CCP7.1 HERE]

34 Box CCP7.1: Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge and Community-Based Adaptation

36 Purely scientific knowledge, albeit indispensable, is insufficient to address climate change. Indigenous
37 Knowledge systems, embedded in social and cultural structures, are integral to climate resilience and
38 adaptation (high confidence) (Ajani 2013; Tengö et al. 2014; Hiwasaki et al. 2015; Roue and Nakashima
39 2018)[AR5 WG2 12.3.3, 14.3.1, 20.4.2 , SRCCL 4.8.1, 4.8.2, SR15 4.3.5]. Indigenous knowledge and local
40 knowledge (IK and LK) and community-based adaptation (CbA) have received increasing recognition across
41 all sectors (high confidence) (Reid and Huq 2014; Wright et al. 2014; MOSTE 2015)[SRCCL 4.1.6, 5.3.5,
42 SR15 Box 4.3] (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). Forest Indigenous knowledge is closely linked to traditional land-use
43 practices and local governance (Roberts et al. 2009); it is embodied in art, rituals, food, agriculture and
44 customary laws, among others (Hiwasaki et al. 2015; Camico et al. 2021). CbA is a community led process
45 based on its desires, priorities, knowledge and capacities; which empowers people as central players in
46 climate change adaptation (Reid et al. 2009) [SRCCL 5.3.5].

48 CbA is related with concepts such as community and adaptive collaborative forest management. These
49 approaches acknowledge the importance of cultural and socio-economic ties between communities and
50 forests, along with community's authority and responsibility for forest sustainable management (Ajani 2013;
51 Ellis et al. 2015; Torres et al. 2015).

53 Role of IK and LK and CbA for Climate Change Adaptation in Tropical Forests

55 Local forest and Indigenous forest management systems have developed over long time periods; generating
56 social practices and institutions that have supported livelihoods and cultures for generations (high
57 confidence) (Seppälä 2009; Martin et al. 2010; Parrotta and Agnoletti 2012; Camico et al. 2021).

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1 Archaeological evidence shows that humans have manipulated tropical forests for at least 45 thousand years
2 (high confidence). Indigenous Peoples usually consider themselves as parts of socio-ecosystems, protecting
3 the forest by maintaining healthy socio-ecological relationships and successfully adapting to environmental
4 change (Speranza et al. 2010; Swiderska et al. 2011; Parrotta and Agnoletti 2012; Uprety et al. 2012; Mistry
5 et al. 2016; Roberts et al. 2017) [AR5 WG2 12.3.2].

7 CbA ensures community engagement in bottom-up management and adaptation approaches (Simane and
8 Zaitchik 2014; Keenan 2015). IK and LK and CbA can enhance adaptation in many ways, including through
9 knowledge generation, ecosystem monitoring, climate forecasting, increased resilience and response to
10 climate extremes and slow onset events (Speranza et al. 2010) [AR5 WG2 12.3.3; SRCCL 4.8.2] (Figure
11 Box CCP7.1.1).

13 Integration of IK and LK Systems, CbA and Modern Scientific Systems

15 Several authors have highlighted the need to foster a respectful a dialogue between IK and LK and modern
16 science towards a holistic research model (high confidence) (Berkes 2010; Ajani 2013; Tengö et al. 2014;
17 Roue and Nakashima 2018)[AR5 WG2 12.3.3, 14.2.2]; but few ecological studies have attempted this
18 integration (Keenan 2015; Vadigi 2016). Examples in tropical forest ecosystems include topics such as
19 monitoring climate impacts; local climates; seed, water and land management resilience-increasing practices
20 and climate threats to traditional agriculture (Parrotta and Agnoletti 2012; Fernández-Llamazares et al. 2017;
21 Camico et al. 2021; Panduro Meléndez et al. 2021). A growing number of methods are available to help this
22 dialogue [SRCCL 7.5.1] (Reid et al. 2009; Tengö et al. 2014; Tengö et al. 2017; Roue and Nakashima
23 2018)(Figure Box CCP7.1.1). While there is expanding interest among decision-makers, researchers,
24 Indigenous Peoples and civil society on IK and LK (Hiwasaki et al. 2015; Maillet and Ford 2016), gaps
25 remain regarding links between place-and-culture dimensions and adaptive capacities (Ford et al. 2016).

27 Enhancing Adaptive Capacity Through IK and K and CbA: Lessons Learned

29 Useful lessons can be drawn from experience to effectively incorporate IK and LK and CbA in adaptation
30 strategies. A number of barriers to adaptation have also been recognized (Figure Box CCP7.1.1).
31 Considering that IK and LK is increasingly threatened by colonization, acculturation, dispossession of land
32 rights, and environmental and social change, among others [AR5 WG2 12.3.3; SR5 4.3.5] (Seppälä 2009)
33 highlighted the importance of supporting community efforts to document, vitalize and protect it. It is
34 essential to consider goals, identity and livelihood priorities of Indigenous Peoples and local communities,
35 including those beyond natural resource management (Reid et al. 2009; Diamond and Ansharyani 2018;
36 Zavaleta et al. 2018). Adaptation processes are more likely to be transformational when they are locally
37 driven (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Chung Tiam Fook 2015; Chanza and De
38 Wit 2016). This requires adaptive institutional frameworks, capable of navigating the complex dynamic of
39 socio-ecosystems (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Locatelli et al. 2008; Simane and
40 Zaitchik 2014)[AR5 WG2 12.3.2; SR15 5.3.1]. It is important to consider power relations and priority
41 differences to avoid causing social disruption and inequality. "We need to keep asking: Who benefits? Who
42 loses? Who is empowered? Who is disempowered?" (Reid et al. 2009).

44 Finally, vulnerability and adaptive capacity have a historical and geopolitical context, conditioned by value
45 systems and development models. Forest management strategies must take into account the wider picture if
46 they seek to be not just temporally effective (at best), but transformative and sustainable over time (high
47 confidence) (Chung Tiam Fook 2015; Chanza and De Wit 2016).

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2 Figure Box CCP7.1.1: Main obstacles and barriers reported for successful IK and LK and CBA approaches in
3 adaptation strategies and programs for tropical forests.
4 Panel (a): Obstacles and barriers ranked by the number of references in which they were identified. (One reference can
5 identify more than one barrier, so numbers of references by barrier are not additive). Panel (b): Distribution of cases
6 studies according to approach (IK and LK, CBA or a combination of both). One reference can include one or more case
7 studies. See countries included by continent and references in the Supplementary Material (SMCCP7.2)

9 [END BOX CCP7.1 HERE]

12 CCP7.5 Adaptation Options, Costs, and Benefits

14 Ecological adaptation and other spontaneous responses to climate change are discussed in (Settele et al.
15 2015) and [AR6WGII_Ch2]). Here we consider the role of humans in managing the adaptation of tropical
16 forests to climate change. The focus is on human-assisted adaptation options that help to maintain tropical
17 forest ecosystems and not on the use of forests to supply provisioning services, such as timber, which is
18 covered in [AR6 WGII_Ch5]. Forest management and agroforestry are discussed, but only with regard to
19 their role in contributing to the adaptation of tropical ecosystems now and in the future. Maintaining
20 ecosystems has a range of co-benefits for humans including through `ecosystem-based adaptation' these are
21 explored in [Chapter 1 Box 1.3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2, Box CCP7.2]. Although there

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1 are a number of potentially valuable response options, it is clear that certain hazards, such as heat waves,
2 may be impossible to manage at the forest community level and require long-term interventions at the
3 landscape scale. Similarly, it will be difficult for forest managers to adapt to indirect climate-related
4 ecosystem disturbances such as loss of pollination agents, invasive species, or pest and diseases outbreaks
5 (Allen et al. 2010; Anderegg et al. 2020). Equally important in adapting to increased pressure from climate
6 change are efforts to minimize disturbance from non-climatic stress factors (e.g. overharvesting, pollution,
7 and land use change (Malhi et al. 2014; Keenan 2015; Barlow et al. 2016; Pörtner et al. 2021). Under some
8 emissions scenarios, projected climate change impacts are of such severity that no adaptation measure is
9 likely to protect natural forest systems, e.g. with warming of 4 °C, some tropical forests are at risk of die-
10 back from high temperature (Malhi et al. 2014; Settele et al. 2015; Trumbore et al. 2015).

12 Actions to protect the extent or reduce the disturbance pressure on forest systems contribute to the capacity
13 of these systems to respond to climate change (increasing resistance and resilience) (high confidence) (Millar
14 et al. 2007; Schmitz et al. 2015; Settele et al. 2015; Sakschewski et al. 2016; Hisano et al. 2018).
15 Furthermore, if implemented sufficiently well, efforts to manage and restore forests also improve the
16 capacity of forest systems to respond to future climate stressors (increasing resilience and responsiveness).
17 Table CCP7.3 gives an overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests within the framework of protect,
18 manage, restore (Sayer et al. 2003; Pörtner et al. 2021). In assessing the available adaptation options, it can
19 be useful to distinguish between actions focused on protecting forest extent, managing biodiversity,
20 managing ecosystem function, or restoring ecosystem services (Seppälä 2009), Figure CCP7.5 and Table
21 CCP7.4 give a detailed assessment of the major adaptation options in this context. Beyond these specific
22 interventions, and in several cases underpinning them, there is an increasing awareness that effective
23 management and adaptation of tropical forests requires an appreciation of IKLK and community-based
24 adaptation in order for implementation to be meaningful, these approaches are assessed in [Box CCP7.1]

26 CCP7.5.1 Adaptation Options at Different Scales

28 To retain functioning tropical forests, adaptation will need to take place across many scales from individual
29 stands, to interconnected landscapes, and upwards to regional and global policy changes. From a global
30 perspective the most effective adaptation and mitigation option is to reduce and reverse the loss of area in
31 tropical forest ecosystems (Alkama and Cescatti 2016; B. W. Griscom et al. 2017). Maximizing tropical
32 forest extent has well described benefits in mitigating CO2 emissions and in the role of forests regulating
33 global climate (high confidence) (Smith et al. 2014). For nations with tropical forests, adaptation is largely
34 achieved through sustainable management of forested areas, enforcing the land rights/land tenure of
35 Indigenous Peoples, and through establishment of Protected Areas (Table CCP7.4; (Seppälä 2009; Pörtner et
36 al. 2021)). Some of this is achieved through schemes incentivizing landowners to retain tree cover for the
37 express purpose of mitigating climate change impacts (e.g. PES, REDD+). For nations outside of the tropics,
38 there is a need to regulate the global drivers of forest loss, such as the consumption of agricultural
39 commodities and of non-sustainable forest products (including timber) (CCP7.3; (CCP 7.3; Henders et al.
40 2015 Nolte et al., 2017, Pendrill et al., 2019).

42 At a landscape scale, increasing forest cover and maintaining biodiversity-friendly land-use outside forests
43 increases ecosystem resilience to climate change (and other disturbances) and allows for climate-driven
44 species migration e.g. Table CCP7.3- protect; (Schmitz et al. 2015; Aguirre and Sukumar 2016)). Ensuring
45 forested areas are large and/or interconnected including the use of specific climate refugia and climate
46 corridors is recommended for climate adaptation (high confidence) (Schmitz et al. 2015; Settele et al. 2015;
47 Simmons et al. 2018; Pörtner et al. 2021). For habitats or species pushed to the edge of their range, area-
48 based conservation needs to take account of the future climate space and facilitate movement of species
49 through connectivity or assisted migration (Seppälä 2009; Schmitz et al. 2015; Pörtner et al. 2021).
50 Maintaining functioning forest ecosystems is vital due to biophysical, biological (biodiversity-driven) and
51 socioeconomic interactions that contribute to ecosystem resilience (Pielke Sr et al. 2011; Malhi et al. 2014;
52 Lawrence and Vandecar 2015; Alkama and Cescatti 2016; Sakschewski et al. 2016). Protecting forested
53 areas can be achieved through vertical integration of policies at national, subnational and local levels and
54 effective stakeholder empowerment (Meijer 2015). Community-based and ecosystem-based adaptation
55 approaches provide an overall strategy to help achieve these goals [Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in
56 Chapter 2] (Locatelli et al. 2010; Cerullo and Edwards 2019). In addition to conservation of tropical forests,
57 restoration and afforestation can be effective climate adaptation measures (e.g. Table CCP7.3- restore)

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1 (Arora and Montenegro 2011; Perugini et al. 2017). The technical requirements for such adaptation measures
2 are similar to those required for forest landscape restoration (Mansourian and Vallauri 2005; Mansourian et
3 al. 2017; Shimamoto et al. 2018; Philipson et al. 2020). Agricultural intensification has been proposed as one
4 method to reduce pressure on remaining forested land, although the overall carbon impact of such
5 approaches must be considered (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in SRCCL, Shukla et al. 2019; Cerri et al. 2018;
6 Kubitza et al. 2018).

8 At the forest community level, adaptation options aim to protect the forest microenvironment and retain
9 biodiversity through forest management (e.g. Table CCP7.3- manage; (Keenan 2015; Jactel et al. 2017)). In
10 Protected Areas this would typically involve reinforcing existing conservation objectives through adaptive
11 management (Salafsky et al. 2001; Ellis et al. 2015; Tanner-McAllister et al. 2017; Hagerman and Pelai
12 2018), including support for natural regeneration (Chazdon et al. 2016). It is also possible to improve forest
13 cover and interconnectivity through restoration or afforestation. There are many technical guides to improve
14 the implementation and success rate of such approaches (Table CCP7.4) (Lamb and Gilmour 2003;
15 Shimamoto et al. 2018; Strassburg et al. 2019)) and funding support specifically aimed at climate change
16 adaptation and mitigation (e.g. REDD+). In some instances, climate change can alter climate suitability to
17 the extent that managers need to allow for a transition to a new habitat type (e.g. from tropical forest to
18 savanna), adaptive management can help recognize and facilitated these transitions (Seppälä 2009; Schmitz
19 et al. 2015; Lapola et al. 2018). Depending on local conditions it will be necessary to adapt to specific stress
20 factors that are likely to increase in prevalence or severity due to climate change, e.g. heat waves, drought
21 events and forest fires (Allen et al. 2010; Malhi et al. 2014; Seidl et al. 2017). Although it is typically not
22 possible to link individual events or adaptation measures to climate change; the effectiveness of technical
23 interventions has been illustrated in a broader forest management context. Table CCP7.4 assesses the costs
24 and benefits of different adaptation options based on the available literature. However, it should be noted
25 that there is lack of information on many potential adaptation interventions, especially in the context of
26 tropical forests (Locatelli et al. 2010; Bele et al. 2015; Keenan 2015; Hagerman and Pelai 2018). The
27 sections below and Figure CCP7.5 offer a framework for optimizing management of complex tropical forest
28 ecosystems within a landscape context, through a range of interconnected adaptation options.

30 CCP7.5.2 Adaptation Response Options

32 Forests will be affected by several climate change impacts that will require forest management towards
33 fulfilling four objectives: maintain forest area; facilitate biodiversity adaptation; maintain healthy
34 functioning forest ecosystems; and restore ecosystem services (including productive capacity) (Seppälä
35 2009), which complement the more conventional approaches to protect, manage and restore forests (Sayer et
36 al. 2003). This is dependent on location-specific conditions that are defined by the type of forest and land
37 tenure regimes or dominant actors across forest landscapes. The analysis here proposes 10 adaptation
38 responses that focus on the adaptation potential of tropical forests to climate change and are linked to the
39 management objectives identified (Figure CCP7.5). Each response option (110) implies variable economic
40 costs and benefits, influenced by location-specific conditions, including several important non-monetized
41 benefits. The figure suggests the most relevant situations in which the different response options hold greater
42 potential to meet the forest management objectives for addressing expected climate change impacts.

44 This assessment considers the economic costs and benefits of 10 response options in their contribution to
45 adaptation of tropical forests to climate change impacts but also includes non-market costs that are more
46 difficult to quantify (e.g. cultural values), which are borne by different stakeholders (Chan et al. 2016;
47 Pascual et al. 2017). Similarly, benefits also include the social and environmental benefits that result from
48 adaptation options over extended time horizons. Economic costs and benefit-cost ratios suggest the short-
49 term economic potential of different options, but responsibly designed adaptation measures involving a
50 combination of different response options and embracing a long-time horizon have the potential to provide
51 significant social and climate benefits over the coming 50 years or more.

54 Table CCP7.3: Overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests. This table includes key policy frameworks and
55 common management approaches with potential for adapting native forests to increased disturbance from climate
56 hazards. Details on each management approach and the associated literature are given in Table CCP7.4: Costs and
57 Benefits of Adaptation Options in Tropical Forests.

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1
2

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2 Figure CCP7.5: Framework to assess adaptation response options in tropical forests by adopting a landscape

3 perspective as determined by types of forests and tree cover across different tenure regimes. Notes: HCVA = High

4 Conservation Value Areas; HCSA = High Carbon Stock Areas; IPLC = Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities.

5 The information supporting this figure originates from an extensive literature review that is included in this section,

6 Table CCP7.4. The assessment of confidence levels is based on the judgement of the authors based on the reviewed

7 literature and follows IPBES guidelines.

10 CCP7.5.3 Costs

12 The cost of implementing adaptation options varies widely and will change based on the location, time

13 horizon, and who bears the cost. As a result, most existing estimates are offered in broad ranges that include

14 only partial cost estimates. Here we group the adaptation costs into three categories, low (USD5000/ha).

17 · Low cost options are those estimated to cost less than USD 1000 per ha and include recognition of

18 tenure rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities (Hatcher 2009), restoring ecological

19 connectivity (Crossman and Bryan 2009; Torrubia et al. 2014), fire prevention and management

20 (Bronson W Griscom et al. 2017; Arneth et al. 2019), assisted natural regeneration (Cury and Carvalho

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1 2011; Lira et al. 2012; MMA 2017; Silva and Nunes 2017), and sustainable forest management (Boltz et

2 al. 2001; Holmes et al. 2002; Pokorny and Steinbrenner 2005; Medjibe and Putz 2012; Singer 2016).

3 · Medium cost options are those estimated to cost between USD 1000 and USD 5000 per ha and include

4 estimates for tree planting (Rodrigues 2009; Campos-Filho et al. 2013; Silva and Nunes 2017; Nello et

5 al. 2019) and avoided deforestation (Kindermann et al. 2008; Overmars et al. 2014; Smith et al. 2019).

6 · High cost options are those estimated to cost more than USD 5000 per ha and include actions associated

7 with agroforestry systems, particularly the most biodiverse systems (Raes et al. 2017; Nello et al. 2019).

8 · Costs per hectare are either not available or vary too widely for several options, including protected

9 areas (Balmford and Whitten 2003; Bruner et al. 2004), and high value conservation areas in working

10 lands (Naidoo and Adamowicz 2006). Bronson W Griscom et al. (2017) provided recent estimated costs

11 for many of the above adaptation options; in most cases these costs are much lower than other estimates

12 referenced here, which are particularly focused on tropical forest landscapes.

14 While economic costs constitute an important factor in determining the feasibility of options, there are other

15 factors that have an important influence on the viability of the options including opportunity costs,

16 transaction costs, and social feasibility, which are not included in this analysis. For example, options such as

17 recognition of rights for Indigenous Peoples and local communities can be a low-cost option but often face

18 political opposition (RRI 2021) including from some conservation organizations; fire prevention and

19 management require political coordination across multiple governance levels (Fonseca-Morello et al. 2017);

20 and sustainable forest management can be seen as a less attractive option when compared to other more

21 profitable land uses (Köthke 2014). Table CCP7.4 offers a more detailed assessment of the costs included,

22 along with a reference to the costs for society.

24 CCP7.5.4 Benefits

26 Estimates of economic benefits across options tend to vary greatly, largely based on the scale of operations,

27 and the market and institutional contexts in which they are implemented. The longer-term non-monetary

28 benefits tend to be larger than has been acknowledged in the past (Chan et al. 2016; Pascual et al. 2017;

29 UNEP 2021). The shorter-term horizon of the economic benefits of adaptation options suggest that benefit-

30 cost ratios of investments are higher in more biodiverse agroforestry systems in comparison with simpler

31 ones (Miccolis et al. 2016), and agroforestry system benefits are comparatively higher compared with

32 commercial tree planting depending on the species (Table CCP7.4 (Nello et al. 2019)).

34 All the objectives here support not only a large number of local people in fulfilling their livelihoods, but

35 often provide services to distant urban populations as well. The benefits differ according to which of the four

36 forest landscape management objectives is prioritized (Table CCP7.4):

38 · objectives that seek to maintain the extent of forests contribute to improved landscape continuity,

39 persistence of species and metapopulations (including floral recruitment) (Nordén et al. 2014),

40 maintaining hydrological cycles (Creed et al. 2011), and avoiding surface temperature increases

41 (Perugini et al. 2017). In many cases High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) are based on the

42 presence of threatened or endemic species or dense, carbon-rich forest ecosystems (e.g. primary forest)

43 (Jennings et al. 2003).

44 · objectives that prioritize natural regeneration and adaptation of biological diversity allow greater

45 opportunity for climate refugia (Morelli et al. 2017; Simmons et al. 2018), provide increased dispersal

46 opportunities for different species (Christie and Knowles 2015), increase flora and fauna diversity, and

47 may provide small benefits in reducing warming (Arora and Montenegro 2011).

48 · objectives to maintain and enhance the quality and persistence of vital forest ecosystems contribute to

49 securing the provision of habitat, maintain soil structure and fertility, and regulate water quantity and

50 quality (Imai et al. 2009; Putz et al. 2012).

51 · objectives that prioritize the restoration of ecological productivity of degraded forest ecosystems and

52 landscapes contribute to increased biodiversity conservation, soil structure and fertility, nutrient cycling,

53 water infiltration/water recharge, erosion control and climate regulation (Seppälä 2009; Shimamoto et al.

54 2018; Pörtner et al. 2021).

56 CCP7.5.5 Strategic Approaches to Combine Response Options

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1 While adaptation costs and benefits of response options differ, their benefit-to-cost ratios are almost always
2 positive, particularly in the longer term (Müller and Sukhdev 2018; Chausson et al. 2020; Seddon et al.
3 2020; Baste et al. 2021). However, implementation of adaptation actions can be economically unviable if the
4 benefits accrue over longer periods of time because development banks apply much higher discount rates to
5 low income countries than the standard rates (Watkiss 2015). Achieving conditions that do not disincentivize
6 against, and rather encourage investments in nature-based solutions to protect, sustainably manage, or restore
7 tropical forest landscapes is therefore critical to enhancing their implementation (UNEP 2021).

9 In addition, implementation of response options should consider equity aspects to ensure that the costs and
10 benefits of actions within a landscape are equitably distributed among public institutions, private enterprise,
11 and civil society (Verdone 2015). Strategic approaches to restoring ecosystems can increase conservation
12 gains and reduce costs (Shimamoto et al. 2018; Strassburg et al. 2019). Cost-effective solutions that consider
13 multiple costs and benefits need a "compromise solution" between short and long-term social and economic
14 gains. Pursuing spatial allocations for adaptation options has the potential to deliver greater benefits at lower
15 costs, therefore aligning aims for tropical forest adaptation, species conservation, and climate mitigation
16 targets with the interests of farmers under short and long time horizons (Beatty et al. 2018).

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1 Table CCP7.4: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options in Tropical Forests.

Climate Adaptation Expected contribution to Context/Location Economic costs Costs to society Benefits for forest Benefits/Impacts to
change measures adaptation of ecosystems people
impact implementation

1. Forest management strategies to maintain the extent of forests

Changes in Avoid Forests counteract wind-driven In private lands 500-2600 USD Opportunity costs Landscape continuity, Potential to affect the lives

the deforestation degradation of soils, and contribute (individual and ha-1 (Kindermann associated with persistence of species and of 1-25 million people

frequency to soil erosion protection and soil collective) and in et al. 2008; different metapopulations globally (low confidence)

and fertility enhancement for state lands, in Overmars et al. alternatively (including floral (Keenan 2015; UNISDR

severity of agricultural resilience (Locatelli et areas with larger 2014; Smith et al. productive land recruitment) (Nordén et and CRED 2015; Smith et

forest al. 2015a). The impact of reduced presence of intact 2019). (1) uses (Kindermann al. 2014). al. 2019).

disturbance deforestation may be higher when forests or mosaic et al. 2008). Maintained hydrology

the large biophysical impacts on the agriculture and 20-200 USD ha-1 (Creed et al. 2011), and

water cycle (and thus drought) are forest lands under (Bronson W flood mitigation.
taken into account (e.g. (Alkama management. Griscom et al.
and Cescatti 2016)). Reducing Avoided surface
deforestation and habitat alteration 2017; Arneth et
al. 2019) (global temperature increases
(Perugini et al. 2017)

contribute to limiting infectious estimate). Protects other regulatory

diseases (e.g. malaria) (Karjalainen functions of forests, with
et al. 2010). Avoiding deforestation positive impacts on

contributes to climate change human health.

mitigation due to reduced carbon
emissions (Smith et al. 2019).

Protect and/or Protected areas play a key role for Mainly Costs include Potential land May create additional Empirical studies of
dispersal corridors and protected areas that use
increase the improving adaptation (Lopoukhine established in recurrent use and tenure support metapopulations impact evaluation
for forest species methods, provide
size and et al. 2012; Watson et al. 2014), state lands where management conflicts over increasing ecosystem evidence that parks help
resilience (Nordén et al. increase household
number of through reducing water flow, there is costs, system protected area 2014). incomes (Mullan et al.
2009), poverty alleviation
protected areas, stabilizing rock movements, dominance of wide costs, and expansion. Improved hydrology and environmental
(Creed et al. 2011) sustainability (Andam et
especially in creating physical barriers to coastal intact forests, in establishment `High value' al. 2010).
Protected areas
`high-value' erosion, improving resistance to some cases costs. The cost per areas are often contribute to income
generation through
areas fires, and buffering storm damages. overlapping with ha decreases with priority areas for tourism (Snyman and
Bricker 2019).
Primary forests sustain tropical Indigenous increased area human activity
biodiversity (Gibson et al. 2011), territories.
(Balmford and (e.g. lowlands)
thus protecting intact forests (Venter et al.
Whitten 2003;
preserves current patterns of Bruner et al. 2014).
biodiversity (Schmitz et al. 2015). (2)
2004). Management
costs (Bruner et
al. 2004).

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Set aside High Setting aside HCVA and HCSA Established in Opportunity costs Opportunity In many cases HCVA HCVA also provide
private intact and ecosystem services, and
Value within agriculture or tree-crop managed forest to landowners costs to are based on the presence therefore can contain
lands often valuable economic
Conservation plantations has benefits for allocated to mid- who would lose landowners who of threatened or endemic benefits;
and large-scale forests provide for some
Areas (HVCA) preserving endemic species, and plantations. working would lose species or dense, carbon- basic needs of local
communities (health and
and High some ecological services (e.g. land/productive working rich forest ecosystems subsistence) as well as
traditional/ cultural
Carbon Stock pollination services from insects)) area to HCVA or land/productive (e.g. primary forest) identity (Seppälä 2009;
Areas (HCSA) (Scriven et al. 2019) (3) Karjalainen et al. 2010).
HCSA. area to HCVA or (Jennings et al. 2003).

in working Management HCSA.

lands costs (Naidoo and Management

Adamowicz costs (Naidoo and

2006). Adamowicz

2006).

2. Forest management strategies to facilitate adaptation of biological diversity

Alteration Restore Conserve biodiversity by enabling Corridors are 60-1294 USD ha-1 Land use Landscape connectivity Ecosystem services could
of plant ecological
and animal connectivity natural migration of species to areas implemented in (in USD 2019) opportunity costs, allows greater opportunity be enhanced (e.g.,
distribution through the
with more suitable climates managed lands (Crossman and financial costs of for climate refugia hydrological benefits, soil
establishment
of corridors (Malcolm et al. 2002), maintaining across state, Bryan 2009; land acquisition (Morelli et al. 2017; conservation, health,
Torrubia et al.
connectedness, especially between collective and and restoration Simmons et al. 2018) and recreational and cultural

various protected areas, and private tenure 2014) (Naidoo and the restoration of benefits through

ensuring that different stages of regimes Adamowicz ecosystem patches of establishment and

forest development are present circumscribed to 2006). native forests can provide restoration of green

(Seppälä 2009). Building corridors specific project Research and pilot dispersal opportunities for spaces).

creates landscape permeability for targeted areas. costs of different different species using

plant and animal movement corridor alternate successional
(Schmitz et al. 2015).
connection stages (Christie and

methods (Naidoo Knowles 2015).

and Adamowicz Improved hydrology.

2006).

Mixed planting Reforestation is an important Tree planting is Planting of Loss of water Better water retention Reforestation/afforestation

with native climate change adaptation response implemented in seedlings 978- yield (at least on capacity; reduced risk of has the potential to impact
species tree option (Reyer et al. 2009; Locatelli degraded lands
planting, with et al. 2015b; Ellison et al. 2017), across different 3450 USD ha-1 (in an annual average erosion, landslides the lives of >25 million

USD 2019) basis) due to Carbon gain. people globally (Medium
(Chabaribery et increased
consideration and can potentially help a large state, collective al. 2008; Increases both flora and confidence) (Reyer et al.

of intraspecific proportion of the global population and private lands Rodrigues 2009; evapotranspiration fauna biodiversity. 2009; UNISDR and
Campos-Filho et
genetic to adapt to climate change and al. 2013; MMA Reforestation In cases of CRED 2015; Sonntag et

diversity of related natural disasters. Native tree 2017; Silva and helps maintaining reforestation/afforestation, al. 2016; Bronson W

seedlings planting aimed at increasing base flow during small benefits in reducing Griscom et al. 2017;

resilience should include planting the dry season warming are expected Smith et al. 2019) (global

genotypes tolerant of drought, may reduce the estimate). No availability

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insects and/or disease, as well as Nunes 2017; amount of water (Arora and Montenegro of information on
increasing the genetic diversity differentiated impacts
within species used for planting and Nello et al. 2019) available for 2011). from reforestation and
recognizing provenance. Tree afforestation.
planting should avoid conversion of people Increased potential for
natural ecosystems including 20-200 USD ha-1 downstream adaptive evolutionary
grasslands and savannahs (Bond and responses within
Zaloumis 2016). (Arneth et al. (Ellison et al.

3. Forest management strategies to maintain the vitality of forest ecosystems 2019), for 2017). populations to the varied

reforestation and Research costs on effects of climate change

forest restoration genetic varieties (drought, disease, etc.)

(Bronson W and (Puettmann 2014).
Griscom et al.
Implementation

2017) (global

estimate).

Changes in Recognizing Granting tenure rights to Indigenous Recognizing local 0.05-9.96 USD Costs to local Landscape continuity, Some estimates indicate

the the rights of people has potential to maintain tenure rights takes ha-1 (Hatcher populations for persistence of species and that Indigenous people

frequency Indigenous forest, and ensure provision of place in land 2009). Include the protecting forest metapopulations manage or have tenure

and Peoples and ecosystem services, thus supporting belonging to costs of mapping, lands, and (including floral rights over at least ~38
opportunity costs recruitment) (Nordén et million km2 (Garnett et al.
severity of local local strategies for adaptation to Indigenous delimitation, and for avoiding land al. 2014). 2018) (global estimate).
climate change threats (Porter- conversion
forest communities Bolland et al. 2012) Peoples and local titling. (RRI (Hajjar et al. Recognition of rights

disturbance communities 2021) estimates often translates into

across all different the following

forest and trees costs: US$5 per 2016). positive social and

conditions ha for large environmental benefits

projects, $22.5 (RRI 2021), yet they may

per ha for differ depending on local

medium, sub- conditions

national projects,

and US$50 per ha

for small

investments.

Increased Within Some production forests can retain SFM is 70 to 160 USD ha- The tendency of Secures the provision of The benefits of
mortality production
most ecosystem functions and undertaken at a 1 (Singer 2016) interventions is a species habitat Sustainable Forest

due to forests, services, and a similar species large scale in (direct or indirect) Soil structure and Management have the
climate practice richness of animals, insects, and public forests potential to affect the lives
169-345 USD ha-1 reduction of fertility

stresses sustainable plants to that found in nearby old- allocated as (in USD 2019) diversity because Regulates water quantity of >25 million people
concessions, and
(including logging by growth forest but can be more at smaller scales (Boltz et al. 2001; the natural interest and quality globally (low confidence)
in private and
fire) embracing susceptible to defaunation and fire Holmes et al. of the forest Carbon storage (Imai et (UNISDR and CRED

reduced-impact (Edwards et al. 2014). Sustainable 2002; Pokorny owner is to favor al. 2009)

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logging (RIL) Forest Management plays a role in community and Steinbrenner commercial 2015; Smith et al. 2019)
species. (global estimate)
and other adaptation by ensuring that through forests lands 2005; Medjibe

practices long-term forest management the and Putz 2012)

diversity of forests is maintained as $20-$200 ha-1
well as benefits from forest resource
use (Putz et al. 2012). Improved (Bronson W
forest management positively Griscom et al.
impacts adaptation by limiting the 2017; Arneth et
negative effects associated with al. 2019) (global

pollution (of air and fresh water), estimate)

diseases, and exposure to extreme

weather events and natural disasters
(e.g., (Smith et al. 2014)) (4)

Reduce the As fire hazard increases in some Fire prevention <$20 ha-1 Costs of fuel Avoids forest >5.8 million people

incidence of forests with climate change, and management (Bronson W management and degradation and affected by wildfire
fire hazard and adaptation measures to reduce fire is practiced in Griscom et al.
improve fire hazard will be needed (Seppälä private lands 2017; Arneth et prescribed burns. deforestation. globally; max. 0.5 million
management 2009). (individual and al. 2019) (global
Costs of Prevents biodiversity deaths per year by smoke

implementing fire and species loss. globally (medium

collective) and estímate) management Protects local livelihoods confidence) (Johnston et

state lands across plans with many and cultural values. al. 2012; Doerr and Santín

managed and groups of 2016; Smith et al. 2019)

intact forest lands stakeholders (global estimate)
(Stephens et al.

2013).

4. Forest management strategies to restore the productive capacity of forest ecosystems

Increased Assisted Forest landscape restoration Tree regeneration Assisted natural Opportunity costs Uses microclimatic The benefits of
mortality takes place in
due to natural positively affects the structure and more degraded regeneration 180- of alternative land changes from regeneration of degraded
climate lands across landscapes has the
stresses regeneration in function of degraded ecosystems different types of 980 (USD ha-1 (in uses, costs of regeneration to create
degraded forest (Shimamoto et al. 2018). Forest tenure regimes in
public, USD 2019) (Cury maintaining emergent landscape potential to impact the
community and
landscapes restoration may enhance private lands and Carvalho regenerating restoration from available lives of >25 million

connectivity between forest areas 2011; Lira et al. landscapes (e.g. and present species in soil people globally (Medium

and help conserve biodiversity 2012; MMA exclusion plots), seed banks or dispersive confidence) (Reyer et al.
hotspots (Locatelli et al. 2015a;
Ellison et al. 2017; Dooley and 2017; Silva and costs of facilitated capacity of local habitat 2009; UNISDR and
Nunes 2017) CRED 2015; Sonntag et
dispersal or patches. al. 2016; Bronson W
Griscom et al. 2017;
Kartha 2018). Forest restoration seeding (Naidoo Increases potential area Smith et al. 2019) (global

may improve ecosystem and Adamowicz and influence of forest

functionality and services, provide 2006). ecosystems even into

microclimatic regulation for people marginal matrix habitat estimate)

and crops, wood and fodder as (Chazdon and Guariguata

safety nets, soil erosion protection 2016).

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and soil fertility enhancement
(Locatelli et al. 2015a). Land
restoration can reduce future risks
(e.g. by protecting against hazards)
and current vulnerability (e.g. by
diversifying livelihoods) (Pramova
et al. 2019). Natural forest
regeneration contributes to climate
mitigation through carbon removals
(Lewis et al. 2019), and this would
imply less need for climate
adaptation

Changes in Expand Agroforestry reduces pressure on Agroforestry has a 7150-22575 USD Opportunity Biodiversity (habitat, Potential to improve

the agroforestry intact forests and can enhance large potential in ha-1 (n USD 2019) costs of other land migratory corridors, gene farmers' livelihoods and

frequency systems (AFs) ecosystem services at the landscape collective forest (Raes et al. 2017; uses. flow) quality of life of 2,300

and in buffer zones level (Jose 2009). It can also help to lands, both Nello et al. 2019) Costs of Soil structure and million people globally

severity of and mosaic increase resilience to pests and managed and engaging in fertility, nutrient cycling (medium confidence)
degraded markets and/or Water infiltration/ water (Lasco et al. 2014; Smith
forest landscapes diseases through ecological developing
processes (Miccolis et al. 2016). markets for recharge, erosion control et al. 2019) (global
disturbance
Agroforestry can reduce Buffer strips can reduce estimate)

vulnerability to hazards like wind agroforestry the resource pressures on

and drought, particularly for products. native ecosystems by

subsistence farmers (Thorlakson and Risks of market providing income and

Neufeldt 2012). saturation and resources for people
supply/demand (Vieira et al. 2009).

inconsistencies.
(Torres et al.
2010; Mercer et
al. 2014)

1 Table Notes:

2 This table draws on Appendix 6.1-6.4 from Seppala et al. 2009, pp. 71-77
3 (1) Agricultural expansion is the major driver of deforestation in developing countries. Cost of reducing deforestation is based on opportunity cost of not growing the most common
4 crop in developing countries (Maize) for six years to reach tree maturity, with yield of 8 t ha-1 (high); 5 tons ha-1 (medium) & 1.5 t ha-1 & price of USD 329 t-1. Also, reduced

5 deforestation practices have relatively moderate costs, but they require transaction and administration costs (Kindermann et al. 2008; Overmars et al. 2014).
6 (2) May not deal with displacement of wild species due to climate change
7 (3) Fragments of disconnected HCVAs have less value to preserve ecological services
8 (4) Forest management strategies may decrease stand-level structural complexity and may make forest ecosystems more susceptive to natural disasters like wind throws, fires, and

9 diseases (Seidl et al. 2017)

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1 [START BOX CCP7.2 HERE]

2 Contribution of sustainable tropical forest management to the SDGs

3 Box CCP7.2

5 There is increasing evidence of positive impacts of resilient tropical forests, biodiversity, and sustainable forest

6 management in achieving SDGs as illustrated in Table Box CCP72.1. However, there is also risk of unintended

7 consequences based on conflicts between the use of forest-based goods and services and effects on tropical

8 forest resilience, ecosystem services, and biodiversity (Baumgartner 2019). For instance, substitution of fossil

9 fuels and non-renewable resources with bio-based products can lead to deforestation and the loss of

10 biodiversity (Carrasco 2017) (Cross-Working-Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5). Deforestation as a

11 result of increased agricultural production and productivity could hamper efforts in addressing long term food

12 security, particularly for forest dependent people (Newton et al. 2016); CCP7.2.3). Synergies and trade-offs

13 depend very much on local contexts and are therefore presented in exemplary form.

15 IFAD (2016) estimated that there are 640 million people living below the poverty line in rural areas of 43

16 tropical countries. Poor communities rely on ecosystem services for their subsistence livelihoods, and often

17 they have limited capacity to adapt to change, making them more vulnerable to climate change and other

18 forms of changes (Bhatta 2015). Managing forests sustainably benefits both urban and rural communities,

19 including provision of food and fiber, on watershed hydrology, agroforestry production, among others

20 (Powell et al. 2013; Dawson et al. 2014) (Clark and Nicholas 2013) (Mbow et al. 2014)) (Table Box

21 CCP7.2.1).

24 Table Box CCP7.2.1: Examples from sustainable tropical forest management (STFM) in achieving SDGs.

SDGs Contribution of STFM Adaptation Interventions Supporting

to the Goals references

1 No Poverty Area of forest land with In Mexico, community forest management (CFM) (Ellis et al.

legal property status has played a pivotal role in forest cover and 2015)

held by communities biodiversity conservation in the region where timber

production and processing generates income and

thereby offers a way out of poverty for families in

communities with rights to forests.

Improve incomes Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are a significant (Kumar 2015)
through selling forest source for socio-economic, employment and income
products or by generation, particularly for tribal people.
generating employment
for the poorest

Improve income In Cambodia, contribution of forest resources should (Nhem 2018)
through valuation of be integrated into payment for ecosystem services
ecosystem services schemes, in order to provide more diversified
income streams, insulating indigenous people from
shocks and stressors.

2 Zero Hunger Forests also provide In Cameroon, forest fruits provide important macro- (Fungo et al.
food, which improves and micronutrients lacking from the family diets of 2015) ;
food security and rural people. Association between tree cover and the
nutrition dietary diversity of children in the communities of (Ickowitz et al.
21 countries across Africa. 2014)

3 Good Health Medicinal plants Medicinal plants and the associated Bhutanese (Wangchuk and
& Wellbeing contribute to emotional traditional medicine (BTM) are protected by the Tobgay 2015)
country's constitution and receive both government
and spiritual wellbeing support and acceptance by the wider public. These
medicinal plants have been one of the drivers of the
`Gross National Happiness (GNH)' and
biodiscovery projects in Bhutan.

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Health co-benefits of In the Brazilian Amazon, interventions targeted (Bauch et al.
preserving biodiversity specifically at preserving biodiversity in protected 2015)
areas generate health co-benefits. From the
perspectives of malaria, acute respiratory infection
(ARI), and diarrhea, results suggest that the public
health benefits of strict PAs may offset some of their
local costs. Nature is doing its part by providing a
form of (human) capital for the rural poor and the
politically voiceless.

4 Quality Inclusive education that Encouraging and enabling pro-forest behavior as (Kanowski
Education builds and reinforces well as strengthening education systems that 2019) (Tengö
positive attitudes to respect, nurture and enable Indigenous knowledge 2017)
forest and local knowledge. (Vaidyanathan
2014)

The value of social capital for maintaining (Lee 2017)
sustainability of community forest management
includes, among others, individual characteristics,
procedural knowledge and access to information.
Initiatives to manage natural resources are likely to
be more successful if the forest management
program initiators consider several factors that
influence the capacity development of resource
users.

5 Gender Within genders, other Despite challenges, Nepal's community forestry (Lama et al.
Equality characteristics such as policy is considered one of the most progressive, as 2017); (Agarwal
class, race, caste, it allows women to exercise equal rights with men in 2015)
culture, wealth, age and the management and utilization of community
ethnicity influence forests. Furthermore, women-only forestry groups
responses and affect the have registered many success stories.
impact of climate
variability and change
on livelihoods

6 (Clean Regulate water supply, Evidence from the Hindu Kush Himalayas require (Scott C.A.
Water & water quality and water improved upstream-downstream integration, 2019);
Sanitation) purification transboundary cooperation and greater coordination (Amezaga
of implementation of different SDGs. Greater efforts 2019)
are required to make the communities struggling on
the frontline of sustainable forest management more
climate resilient.

Forest concessions can make a positive contribution (Bruggeman et
to this by minimizing the negative impacts of al. 2015),
harvesting operations on water access and by
employing appropriate restoration techniques as
required by the concession contract and national
legislation.

7 (Affordable Energy transitions Decreased reliance on traditional wood fuels and (Jagger 2019) ;
& clean increased use of forest-derived modern fuels (e.g.
energy) biofuel) are generally synergistic with achieving (Simangunsong
other SDGs, such as livelihoods strategies. However, et al. 2017)
modern wood fuels need improved stoves to ensure
the energy is clean.

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8 (Decent Stimulating economic Synergy potentials exist where growth strategies and (Stoian 2019)
work and growth and minimizing associated policies target the forest section with
economic forest loss NTFPs from natural forests, ecotourism and
growth) payments for environmental services.

Community forestry enterprises have the potential to (Aryal 2020);
make significant contributions by providing a solid (Vázquez-
institutional framework to efficiently translate SDGs Maguirre 2020);
into actions. It also improves forest management, (Baynes 2015)
social cohesion and rural incomes amongst local
communities in developing countries.

9 (Industry Integration of small- Strategies in relation to sustainable supply chains (Delabre et al.
innovation & scale business into and tropical forest protection, i.e. Unilever and 2020)
infrastructure) value chains and Instituto Centro de Vida (ICV), demonstrate both
markets alignment and variability between and within
organizations. Associated incentives could help
balance the burden of responsibility for
implementation between global and local actors of
promoting zero deforestation.

10 (Reduced Reduction in the Results from Waseda-Bridgestone Initiative for (Hiratsuka
Inequalities) number of poor Development of Global Environment (W-BRIDGE 2019)
households Initiative) in South Kalimantan province through
capacity building delivered by academic partners.
This initiative also increased land area ownership
from 0.28 to 1.23 ha per household.

11 Protect the workers and Rural agrarian communities in low-latitude tropical (Masuda 2019)
(Sustainable communities long-term forests (e.g., communities in Southeast Asia, South
Cities and and economic well- America, Central Africa) adapting to chronically (Herrera et al.
Communities) being hotter temperatures in common ways, such as 2017)
adjusting when and how they work. Decision-
Upstream forests makers should develop an understanding of these
influence water supplies behavioral adaptations that are already being
to cities adopted before establishing broader adaptation
strategies.
Watershed condition is associated with measurable
health outcomes downstream. Maintaining natural
capitals within watersheds is an important public
health investment especially for populations with
low levels of built capital.

Evidence from Marikina Watershed Integrated (Devisscher
Resources Development Alliance in the Philippines 2019)
working together with all stakeholders to restore
Marikina Watershed to reduce disaster risk and
urban resilience.

Synergies delivered through sound urban forestry (Konijnendijk
approaches could benefit not only urban dwellers but 2018)
also forest communities. Community groups have
also taken responsibility for urban forestry in the
absence of strong government commitment.

12 Generates materials for Forest concessionaires can also increase the (Tegegne et al.
(Responsible sustainable repurposing of waste to improve sustainable 2019)
Consumption consumption consumption. For instance, the logging company
& Production) Congolaise Industrielle des Bois produces electricity
from sawmill wood waste.

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13 (Climate Enhance resilience and Mixed agroforestry systems offer opportunities to (van Noordwijk
Action) adaptive capacities to simultaneously meet the water, food, energy and et al. 2016)
climate change through income needs of densely populated rural and peri-
forest management urban areas in Indonesia.

Carbon-based Payment for carbon-based conservation (eg. (Roucoux et al.
conservation REDD+, Green Climate Fund) protecting peatlands 2017)
from avoidable human impacts for favourable return
from carbon conservation investments.

REDD+ has mixed impacts on communities' socio- (Hajjar 2021)
ecological resilience. On one hand, increases in
network ties and participation in decision-making
would enhance potential for local adaptability.
However, restrictions on local forest practices could
limit communities' ability to manage uncertainty.

14 (Life Support numerous Complex root systems serve as shelter as they (Friess 2019)
protect juvenile fish from predators as well as
Below Water) ecosystem services provide food and nutrients for fish.

Mangroves contribute to fisheries production and (Stringer 2015)
have become one of the higher carbon stocks
compared to other forests. The mangroves system of
the Zambezi River Delta, Mozambique confirms the
consistency of substantial C stocks typical of
mangroves across a relatively large and
hydrologically diverse area.

15 (Life on Protection for aquatic The riparian canopy of the tropical forest is (Md rai 2014)
Land) macroinvertebrates significantly able to maintain in-stream temperature
habitats that is important to aquatic macroinvertebrates. The (van
study of Gunung Tebu, Malaysia showed high Hensbergen
Community monitoring diversity and abundance of steams invertebrates as 2016)
of their own forests or the natural habitats are minimally impacted.
forest within communal Mainstreaming SFM in vast tracts of forest, thereby
jurisdiction, sustainable increasing the share of forest area under a forest
certification management plan, including the proportion of forest
area certified under independent forest certification
schemes.

Even with tension between the management of (Sayer et al.
resources for local goals and the need for public 2015); (Sheil
good values, still there are some communities that 2015)
maintain strong control over their lands and
resources in achieving desirable conservation
outcomes and willing to see large tracts of land set
aside, i.e. areas held to be sacred.

16 (Peace, Addressing complexity Target 16.7 calls for responsive, inclusive (Baynes 2015) ;
justice and of implementing participatory and representative decision-making at (McDermott
strong conservation policy all levels. Decentralization in forest governance 2019) ;(Myers
institutions) observed through community-based/collaborative 2017) ;(Nunan
forest management depends on the strength of 2018)
underlying land tenure and use rights, as well as
capacity to benefit from those rights.

By 2021, Thailand plans to increase use of (Phumee 2018)
renewable and alternative energy by 25% including
energy crops. Adequate forest protection is critical,
as increasing demand for energy crops may drive
demand for expanding agricultural production into

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public forests, benefitting some SDGs and
threatening others.

Modern technologies in Technologies including remote sensing and (Beckline 2017)
forest management Geographic Information System (GIS) are
control interrelated as they support management actions in
global forest resources management thus reducing
exploitation through monitoring and evaluation
activities.

Governance laws and The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the (Gabay 2019)
policies provide access program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification
to justice for all (PEFC) significantly contribute to ensuring the (Swamy 2018) ;
legality of the timber supply chain. The (FAO (Bukoski et al.
17(Partnership Co-benefits derived 2018b) considers the proportion of forest with secure 2018)
for the goals) from tropical forest tenure rights for forest dependent people and the
local community in ensuring equal rights to
conservation economic resources for all.
Raising awareness of the interconnectedness of
tropical forests and the SDGs through multi-
disciplinary collaboration will support more
informed decisions of social, cultural, economic and
policy interest.

Voluntary Partnership In Ghana, the adoption of the VPA resulted in an (Hansen 2018)
Agreements (VPAs) improved Timber Legality Assurance System
stabilize and reproduce (TLAS), strengthened Social Responsibility
the very forest Agreements (SRA) enforcement, updated forest
governance regime management plans, artisanal milling strategies and
technical transparent timber dights allocations.

Central bureaucracies Forest Management Units (FMUs) could be utilized (Sahide 2016)
promote forest benefits: to support conservation-oriented regimes with
countering conservation worldwide interests as well as domestic production-

oriented regimes. For example, FMUs might
potentially link up with global and domestic timber
certification regimes under the Multistakeholder
Forestry Programme (MFP3) imitative.

3 [END BOX CCP7.2 HERE]

6 CCP7.6 Governance of tropical forests for resilience and adaptation to climate change

8 Deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests has grown in prominence as priorities for
9 environmental governance in the face of climate change, given the large share of forest and land use GHG
10 emissions in the national profiles of tropical forest countries (high confidence) (Butt et al. 2015; IPCC 2019).
11 This is reflected in Parties' Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement (UNFCCC
12 2021). Significant investments in REDD+ readiness, improved forest monitoring, assessments of drivers of
13 deforestation and, forest degradation and related policy responses, and stakeholder engagement have
14 occurred over the past decade in countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean
15 (Hein et al. 2018; UN-REDD Programme 2018; World Bank 2018). Fifty three percent of countries use
16 highest quality remote sensing data for forest monitoring and reporting, covering 93% of forest cover (Nesha
17 et al. 2021). However, improved monitoring has not yet translated into forest governance effectiveness.
18 Since the New York Declaration on Forests was endorsed in 2014, average annual humid tropical primary
19 forest loss has accelerated by 44% (NYDF 2019). Policy responses towards conservation and ecosystem
20 resilience are found to be insufficient to stem the direct and indirect drivers of nature deterioration (high
21 confidence) (IPBES 2019). For governance measures to be effective, it is necessary to alter the direct and
22 underlying drivers that are leading to forest destruction or impeding the implementation of sustainable forest

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1 management practices and actions to restore degraded forests (high confidence) (CCP7.2.3; CCP7.5;

2 UNFCCC, 2013).

4 Private sector commitments to reduce deforestation impacts in their commodity supply chains are growing,

5 but evidence of impact is slim and inconclusive (Garrett et al. 2019; NYDF 2019). Half of the biodiversity

6 loss associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting

7 et al. 2017), and trends in international trade in land-based production systems are increasing, with greatest

8 impacts on tropical forests (Nyström et al. 2019; Hoang and Kanemoto 2021). In addition, in some cases the

9 impacts of financialization (e.g. correlation of commodity prices with stock market dynamics rather than

10 pure demand) are found to be larger than those related to timber and agricultural commodity production

11 dynamics (Girardi 2015; Ouyang and Zhang 2020); cross-reference to Chapter-5.13). Such factors present

12 challenges for governance and policy responses.

14 The complexity of tackling drivers of forest loss and degradation will increase as climate impacts on forests

15 and ecosystems intensify in the context of incomplete information and limited understanding of risks

16 (Helbing 2013; Hughes et al. 2013; Springmann et al. 2018; Tu et al. 2019), necessitating novel approaches

17 to forest governance for resilience (Keenan 2015; Spathelf et al. 2018). Therefore, governance--defined as

18 efforts that seek to influence the relationship between existing social processes and governance arrangements

19 by using regulatory processes, mechanisms, and organizations (Agrawal et al. 2018) is a crucial process to

20 convene stakeholders for decisions (FAO 2018a).

22 This section describes seven levers that support transformative environmental governance towards resilience

23 of tropical forests by tackling the underlying indirect drivers, offering policy solutions and governance

24 challenges and opportunities. The first five build on IPBES (2019) whereas the remaining two are drawn

25 from the governance literature as highly relevant variables specific to the tropical forest context due to their

26 prominence in the international frameworks developed over the past ten years (Table CCP7.5). Monitoring

27 and finance are embedded in multiple levers. The levers include:

29 1) developing incentives and increased capacity for environmental responsibility (particularly in relation to

30 global targets such as the SDGs, Aichi Biodiversity Targets and the Paris Agreement) and discontinuing

31 harmful subsidies and disincentives;

32 2) reforming sectoral and segmented decision-making to promote integration across sectors and jurisdictions

33 to mainstream environmental objectives across institutions within and among all relevant sectors;

34 3) pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary actions in regulatory and management institutions and businesses

35 to avoid, mitigate and remedy the deterioration of nature, and monitor outcomes;

36 4) managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the face of uncertainty and complexity;

37 5) strengthening environmental laws and policies and their implementation, and the rule of law more

38 generally (Pörtner et al. 2021);

39 6) acknowledging land tenure and rights to recognize the need of bringing human rights considerations into

40 the climate change regime; and,

41 7) enhancing inclusive stakeholder participation to ensure effective, efficient and equitable outcomes

42 (Pasgaard et al. 2016).

44 While the first five levers are relevant to environmental governance more broadly, the exploration of these

45 levers in Table CCP7.5 is more specific to governance for forest resilience, drawing upon insights related to

46 each transformation lever. Next to the governance solutions being implemented currently, indications of

47 future challenges/opportunities related to resilience in tropical forests are explored based on examples from

48 the recent literature.

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1 Table CCP7.5: Levers of transformative change to tackle the underlying indirect drivers of forest deterioration for resilience.

Levers of transformative Barriers Current governance and policy solutions and potential future challenges and
change opportunities with an orientation towards resilience in tropical forests

1. Incentives and capacity- · Population growth and corruption counteract Current policy solutions
building governance effects (Enrici and Hubacek 2016; · REDD+ and Payments for ecosystem services (PES)

Busch and Ferretti-Gallon 2020; Fischer et al. · Corporate supply chain commitments (WWF and BCG 2021)

2020) · Product certification and forest certification have mixed results in addressing deforestation
· Macroeconomic development favoured over (Blackman et al. 2018; van der Ven et al. 2018)

ecosystem service provision-environment · Agricultural credit restrictions (Assunção et al. 2020)

ministries under resourced and politically weak · Protected areas and area-based conservation measures (OECMs) (Maxwell et al. 2020)

compared to those for economic and natural · Clear performance indicators and monitoring systems to assess performance (Agrawal et al.

resource development (UNEP 2019) 2018)

· Though food systems are the major driver, many Future policy challenges/opportunities
· Policies that insulate the forest frontier from the influence of high commodity prices (Busch
interconnected food system activities and effects
do not have established governance regimes to and Ferretti-Gallon 2020)
· Project-level biodiversity responses linked to broader jurisdictional biodiversity targets
address them (Clapp and Scott 2018).
· Reliance on non-state market-based approaches (Simmonds et al. 2020)
· Ecological fiscal transfers to base portions of intergovernmental fiscal transfers on
(e.g. zero-net deforestation) has not achieved
necessary impact against stated targets,

reporting is lacking (Lambin et al. 2018; Global ecological indicators (Busch et al. 2021)
Canopy 2019) · Financial disclosure on risks, divestiture, environment-related investment mandates

· Finance for forest mitigation is less than 1.5% (Halvorssen 2021)
of total since 2010 (Partners 2019), and amount · Identification of means for the forest-based bioeconomy (wood fuel, timber) to be sustained

for forest adaptation is even less (Micale et al. (Dieterle and Karsenty 2020)
· Incentives towards less emissions-intensive inputs in manufactured products, such as
2018)

bamboo (van der Lugt et al. 2018)

· Reducing imports of embedded deforestation (role of land-use telecoupling) (Gardner et al.

2019)
· Supply chain traceability and public reporting (Gardner et al. 2019; Global Canopy 2019)

2. Cross-sectoral cooperation · Inherent vertical and horizontal fragmentation Current policy solutions
· Policy coordination and integration (Candel and Biesbroek 2016)
of policy arena · Jurisdictional and landscape approaches in targeted regions and commodity sectors/supply
· Challenge of silos between ministries (Nilsson

et al. 2016) chains (Reed et al. 2017; von Essen and Lambin 2021)

· Policy integration has a stronger chance of Future policy challenges/opportunities

reforming existing policies and competing · Theories of change applied and testing of policy effectiveness (Meehan et al. 2019; Bager et

sectors than coordination, but is challenged to al. 2021)

overcome sectoral fragmentation and reach · Whole-of-government approaches to change mandates across ministries
international actors and markets (Kissinger et al. · Mainstreaming climate change into sectoral policies (Di Gregorio et al. 2017)
2021)

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3. Pre-emptive action
· Policy mixes implemented as a bundle, policy instrument selection attuned to complexity of
4. Decision-making in the
context of resilience and the problem (Henstra 2015; Head 2018)
uncertainty
· Complexity of the issues for any specific level Current policy solutions
5. Environmental law and of jurisdiction to grapple with, scale mismatches · GHG emission cap-and-trade systems and carbon pricing (Green 2021)
implementation
(temporal, spatial and institutional), institutional · Moratoria

inertia (Bai et al. 2016) · Identifying thresholds of concern, when critical thresholds of fast-changing variables are
· Reliance on path dependency rather than triggered, and nonlinear responses erode the resilience of ecosystems (such as in the case of

innovation (Beland Lindahl et al. 2017; Peters et changing forest fire regimes) (Gillson et al. 2019)
al. 2018; Wieczorek 2018)
· Agenda setting and framing influences political · Reduce loss and waste of biomass
· Change in consumption patterns, sharing and reuse
and policy responses (Soto Golcher et al. 2018) · Shareholder divestiture due to climate/forest and biodiversity risk (Halvorssen 2021)
· Problem denial and blame avoidance on the part

of decision-makers (Howlett and Kemmerling

2017).

· Scope of problem identification limited (Beland Current policy solutions
Lindahl et al. 2017) · Forecasting, scenarios of future climate and forest condition, socio-economic dimensions,

· Increasingly complex and networked world science-policy dialogue (Bele et al. 2015) and thresholds for ecosystem shifts due to

increases risks, but reduces our ability to mortality (tipping points) (Verbesselt et al. 2016).

understand and manage these risks (Helbing Future policy challenges/opportunities
2013; Tu et al. 2019) · Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches to data gathering and policy design

(Keenan 2015)

· `Robust' decision-making approaches for adaptive forest management (Hörl et al. 2020)
· Maintain diversity and redundancy, manage connectivity, and slow variables and feedbacks

(Biggs et al. 2012)
· Measurement and disclosure of climate and ecosystem risk (NBIM 2021)

· 69% of agricultural conversion of tropical Current policy solutions

forests likely illegal between 2013-2019 · Environmental laws and regulations (Head 2018)

(Dummett et al. 2021) · Trained prosecutors

· 90% of countries (of 31 assessed), identify weak · Citizen rights to information (Bizzo and Michener 2017)

forest sector governance and institutions, Future policy challenges/opportunities

conflicting policies beyond the forest sector, and · Capacity and willingness to engage iterative processes for continuous effort in transparency
illegal activity main underlying drivers
(Kissinger et al. 2012); corruption and illegality and accountability (in implementing the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative)(Lujala
2018)
are identified as key factors in increasing forest · Regulatory frameworks as enablers to motivate and hold private sector initiatives to account
loss (Piabuo et al. 2021).
(test effectiveness) (Begemann et al. 2021)
· Implementation and enforcement of
environmental laws falls far short; primary · Nested and multilevel governance arrangements (Ravikumar et al. 2015)
obstacle is political will (UNEP 2019) · Diagnosing the political drivers of decision making through political economy assessment

(Fritz et al. 2014)

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6. Lend tenure/rights · Conflicting legal instruments, lack of clarity in
7. Participation and implementation, monitoring and evaluation,
responsibilities are poorly defined and
stakeholder inclusion fragmented across multiple agencies (Ranabhat
et al. 2018)
1
· Lack of sanctions, transparency and
accountability (Bai et al. 2016; Enrici and
Hubacek 2016)

· Open-ended decision-making exacerbates
political asymmetries (Holley and Sofronova
2017)

· Though recognition of indigenous self- Current policy solutions
determination is growing, many cases of legal · Legal and constitutional recognition of rights, collective/communal rights (Safitri 2015;
recognition still lack full authority to govern
(UN-DESA 2021) Blackman et al. 2017; Gebara 2018)
· Indigenous land demarcation (Baragwanath and Bayi 2020).
· Free Prior Informed Consent (FPIC) · Community-based forest management (Pelletier et al. 2016)

Future policy challenges/opportunities
· Forest protection /climate and biodiversity is strongest when indigenous people hold

collective legal titles to their lands (IPCC 2019) (In Latin America, deforestation rates are
about 50% lower in Indigenous territories than in other forested areas) (FAO and FILAC
2021).

· Governments increasingly rely on highly Current policy solutions
autonomous semi-public or private · Multistakeholder dialogue combined with moratoria (e.g. Brazilian soy moratorium) (Gibbs

organizations for policy results, which weakens et al. 2015)
control of the process (Howlett et al. 2015), yet · Community-based monitoring (Slough et al. 2021)

mediating between diverse values and interests Future policy challenges/opportunities
of citizens, consumers, business, community is a
determinant of policy effectiveness (Peters et al. · Collaborative networks (Thomas et al. 2018)
2018). · Re-evaluating agency, social structures and the distribution of power to uphold rights (I.

· Growing legal restrictions on civil society Delabre et al.)
involvement in governance and access to · Community engagement correlated to secure rights to resources (Pham et al. 2015)

funding (UNEP 2019)
· Institutional practices of stakeholder

consultation in REDD+ not well operationalized

(criteria and transparency often lacking)

(Fujisaki et al. 2016)

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FINAL DRAFT Cross-Chapter Paper 7 IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report

1 [START FAQ CCP7.1 HERE]

3 FAQ CCP7.1: How is climate change affecting tropical forests and what can we do to protect and

4 increase their resilience?

6 Global warming, droughts, extreme rainfalls, and sea-level rise cause significant impacts on tropical forests.

8 In addition to climate change, tropical forests are experiencing non-climatic stressors. Conversion of forest

9 into large scale agriculture land and exploitation of timber and non-timber forest products are increasing

10 pressure and amplifying the impacts of climate change on the remaining areas of tropical forests. These

11 include biodiversity decline, increases of fires, large scale ecosystem transformation, e.g., into savannah in

12 South Eastern Amazon, and increasing carbon emissions due to deforestation, forest conversion and forest

13 degradation. Further, loss of forest resources leads to the decline of livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples and

14 local communities. All nations need to collaborate to implement collective actions to protect tropical forests.

16 Tropical forests are essentially important for the health of planet Earth. Tropical forests in Asia, Africa, and

17 South America regulate carbon, water, and chemical cycles, which maintain a healthy climate and nutrient

18 cycles for supporting life. Tropical forests are home to two-thirds of our world's biodiversity, although they

19 cover only about 13 percent of the land on Earth but it is not exactly known how many millions of living

20 creatures, such as microorganisms, insects, amphibians, snakes, fish, birds, mammals, and primates, live in

21 tropical forests.

23 Approximately 1.3 billion people directly depend upon tropical forest resources to survive. Others are

24 indirectly dependent upon the health and provisioning of ecosystem services and goods from tropical forests.

25 The forests provide many kinds of economic products, such as timber, medicines, and food, recreational

26 services, such as nature trekking, bird and wildlife watching, to mention a few. Indigenous People and other

27 forest-dependent communities have shown extraordinary knowledge on how to manage forest resources to

28 meet their subsistence needs without causing forest degradation. This forest culture and wisdom are broken

29 when the rate of forest extraction changes into unplanned and unsustainable large-scale transformation.

31 Deforestation and land-use changes in tropical forests cause not only physical and biological changes on flora

32 and fauna but also rapid changes in cultures harming forest peoples. A degraded tropical forest is prone and

33 more vulnerable to climate change. An increase in temperature in lowlands creates an unfavorable condition

34 for optimum growths of many kinds of plant species, which affects, as well, several agricultural plants. Coffee

35 farmers, for example, are forced to open new forest frontiers in highland areas to meet an optimum temperature

36 for the growth of coffee.

38 The onset and duration of dry and rainy seasons also changes. A prolonged wet season has excessive rains,

39 which causes flash floods and substantially disturbs a fruiting cycle of many plant species. Due to high rainfall

40 and high humidity, most flowers of forest trees fail to mature, and hence essentially deplete fruit production.

41 Most trees in tropical forests require a short period of a dry season in order to have a mass fruiting season. On

42 the other hand, a prolonged dry season causes soils to dry in deeper layers, higher atmospheric demand for

43 water vapor and enhanced forest fires. In the tropical humid forests, the majority of forest fires are

44 anthropogenic. In Southeast Asia, peat fires cause large carbon emissions and haze pollution, which harms

45 locals and people in neighboring countries. The impact on tropical forest comes also from the rise of sea level

46 rise which due to changes in salinity and sedimentation rates, and the expansion of inundated areas leads to

47 the decline of mangrove productivity.

49 Projected impacts of climate change on the tropical forest might be detrimental to safeguards of local

50 communities and a significant number of flora and fauna in the tropics. In South-Eastern Amazon, reduction

51 in precipitation, due to changes in the climate pattern, associated with intense deforestation and land cover

52 change are leading to reduction of productivity in the remaining forest areas, and might lead to a large-scale

53 change in the forest structure, which can become a savannah. In Southeast Asia, in particular in Indonesia and

54 Malaysia, prolonged dry seasons associated with the El Niño phenomenon cause extensive peat fires, releasing

55 large amounts of carbon dioxide, and creating various health problems related to haze pollution. Furthermore,

56 climate change interacts with deforestation for agriculture (crops, livestock and plantation forestry), logging,

Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute CCP7-39 Total pages: 63
FINAL DRAFT Cross-Chapter Paper 7 IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report

1 mining or infrastructure development exacerbating temperature and rainfall changes resulting in more
2 degradation.

4 Climate change together with forest fragmentation and deforestation also harms wildlife. For example, the
5 orangutan, an endemic species to tropical peat forests in Kalimantan and Sumatra, is classified as critically
6 endangered. Many other endemic and unknown species of flora in tropical forests are in the same condition,
7 and could experience a mass extinction at a more rapid rate than the previous five mass extinctions on Earth.
8 About 1.3 million Indigenous Peoples depending on the natural resources of the tropical forest would suffer
9 from cultural disruption and livelihood change due to forest loss.

11 To protect tropical forests a collective action of all nations is needed. It requires a global effort to stop
12 deforestation and the conversion of tropical forests. The role of Indigenous Peoples and local communities as
13 forest keepers must be strengthened. Economic incentives for protecting tropical forests, among other
14 strategies, could facilitate collective actions towards a sustainable management of tropical forests. Sustainable,
15 effective and just strategies to increase the resilience of tropical forests need to consider the complex political,
16 social and economic dynamics involved, including the goals, identity and livelihood priorities of Indigenous
17 Peoples and local communities beyond natural resource management. Strategies can benefit from integrating
18 knowledge and know-how from traditional cultures, fostering transitions towards more sustainable systems.

20 [END FAQ CCP7.1 HERE]

21
22

Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute CCP7-40 Total pages: 63