Appendix (i.e. Supporting Information) SSP1: Sustainability – The Green Road Sketch The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental boundaries. Increasing evidence of and accounting for the social, cultural, and economic costs of environmental degradation and inequality drive this shift. Management of the global commons slowly improves, facilitated by increasingly effective and persistent cooperation and collaboration of local, national, and international organizations and institutions, the private sector, and civil society. Educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low population. Beginning with current high-income countries,the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being, even at the expense of somewhat slower economic growth over the longer term. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Investment in environmental technology and changes in tax structures lead to improved resource efficiency, reducing overall energy and resource use and improving environmental conditions over the longer term. Increased investment, financial incentives and changing perceptions make renewable energy more attractive. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity. The combination of directed development of environmentally friendly technologies, a favorable outlook for renewable energy, institutions that can facilitate international cooperation, and relatively low energy demand results in relatively low challenges to mitigation. At the same time, the improvements in human well-being, along with strong and flexible global, regional, and national institutions imply low challenges to adaptation. Additional Information Motivating forces: Growing evidence of and accounting for the social, cultural, and economic costs of inequality and environmental degradation moves the world gradually, but pervasively, to prioritize progress towards achieving global and national development and sustainability goals, while reducing inequality (across and within economies). The shift is more pronounced in developed countries, which increasingly prioritize improvements in well-being over economic growth per se. Even in developing countries, where there is a continued focus on economic growth, goals are tempered by increased attention to ensuring this growth is broad-based and does not come at the expense of long-term degradation of local environments 1 This shift evolves over time and is not uniform. The gradual accumulation of evidence of the costs of inequality and environmental degradation is punctuated by periodic tragedies that bring these costs into stark relief. These events stimulate growing constituencies supporting change at the local, national, regional, and international levels. Over time, the initially disparate constituencies are mutually reinforcing, ultimately leading to effective and persistent cooperation and collaboration across these scales and between public organizations, the private sector, and civil society within and across all scales of governance, including local, regional, national, and international. These trends open the door to formal and informal actions that, over time, help to fundamentally restructure the relationships within and between societies, and between humans and the environment. Policies shift to align incentives with development and sustainability goals, including measures such as the adoption and use of standardized measures of well-being to complement GDP; a shift in taxes and subsidies towards a stronger recognition of environmental considerations; a tightening of environmental regulation on the national and regional level; optimizing resource use efficiencies associated with urbanizing lifestyles; and improving the access of developing countries to international markets, including the opening of agricultural markets. As a result of these changing incentives, as well as evolving norms, there are further shifts in public and private behavior reflected in changing consumption and investment patterns. Many of these developments are slow to take hold broadly, and face some resistance and experience setbacks along the way. However, over time they become increasingly self- reinforcing. It is a bumpy road, but one that eventually moves most of the world in a more sustainable direction. Policies, institutions and social conditions: Relatively effective and persistent cooperation and collaboration of national and international organizations and institutions, the private sector, and civil society help drive the transition from increased environmental degradation in the short-term to improved management of the local environment and the global commons over the longer term. For example, tighter controls on air pollution improve health in developing countries. Improvements in agricultural productivity through rapid diffusion of best practices and development of new cultivars and other technologies decrease challenges to food security. Research and technology development reduce the challenges of access to safe water. New global institutions evolve to support cooperation on sustainable development, with flexible roles played by other actors. Reductions in corruption levels, policies calling for greater transparency in all sectors of society, and strengthening of the rule of law gradually lead to greater effectiveness of development policies. Human development: A large emphasis is placed on education and providing access to health care. Policies aim at achieving universal access and promoting higher education levels and gender equality. Relatively high economic growth in low-income countries reduces poverty, and a global focus on increasing equity also increases social cohesion, while maintaining high levels of social and cultural diversity within and across countries. Increasing access to health care and 2 to safe water and improved sanitation in low-income countries reduces the burden of preventable diseases. Economy and lifestyles: This development pathway implies that economic growth is relatively high in developing countries, although growth rates are moderated over time by a shift in emphasis from growth per se to well-being, equity, and sustainability. Inequality is reduced across and within countries. Markets are globally connected, but an emphasis on regional production reduces the incentives for specialization and limits the increase in trade volumes. Investment in environmental technology and changes in tax structures, including phase out of subsidies on fossil fuels, particularly coal and oil, lead to higher levels of resource efficiency, moderating overall energy and resource use over the longer term. Increased investment, lower taxes, and changing perceptions make renewables more attractive. The service sector grows relatively quickly. Consumption is oriented towards low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Population and urbanization: Investments in human capital and rapid technological change accelerate the demographic transition in currently high fertility countries, leading to a relatively low population. Economic optimism sustains or increases fertility levels toward the replacement rate in currently low fertility countries. Urbanization, while still rapid in many developing regions of the world, increasingly is directed via growth of civil society, governance capacity and engaged decision-making to promote environmental benefits, and limit negatives associated with urban growth and cities, reducing the incentives promoting urban sprawl and urban population deconcentration. Cities become more consistent incubators and promoters of sustainability practices. Migration is at intermediate levels. Although increasing integration of labor markets allows people to move around more freely, improved regional livelihoods and the renewed emphasis on regional production reduce migration incentives. Environment and resources: The value shift toward prioritizing environmental sustainabiliy and associated policy focus on environmental protection and technology development implies that air and water pollution is likely to be low and results in improvements in environmental conditions and enhanced protection for vulnerable ecosystems and regions. Depletion of non-renewable resources is relatively low given the focus on environmentally friendly technology. Still, there are challenges with respect to the trade-offs between various resources (such as the use of bio- energy). Food security increases with attention paid to reducing the underlying drivers and increased investment in research and development. Land use is strongly regulated to avoid environmental tradeoffs. Technology: Relatively rapid technological change is directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including energy efficiency, clean energy technologies, and yield-enhancing technologies for land. Strong investment in new technologies and research improves energy access and advances alternative energy technologies. Technology transfer is facilitated by international agreements on intellectual property rights and other issues. 3 Challenges: Challenges to mitigation are low because of high mitigative capacity brought about by rapid technological change as well as effective institutions and willingness to cooperate, facilitated by a broad orientation toward environmental sustainability in an urban-dominated economy. Challenges to adaptation are low because of reductions in vulnerability at the individual and societal levels, and the increased effectiveness of governance and institutions re- oriented toward cooperation and sustainability principles. Better-educated populations and high overall standards of living confer resilience to societal and environmental changes with enhanced access to safe water, improved sanitation, and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability include, for example, the successful implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and reductions in energy, food, and water insecurity. If and when severe climate impacts do occur, coordination structures, e.g. integrated early warning systems, security alliances, disaster relief services, and risk reduction and resiliency promotion strategies are in place to assist those most at risk. SSP 2: Middle of the Road Sketch The world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Most economies are politically stable. Globally connected markets function imperfectly. Global and national institutions work toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals, including improved living conditions and access to education, safe water, and health care. Technological development proceeds apace, but without fundamental breakthroughs. Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall the intensity of resource and energy use declines. Even though fossil fuel dependency decreases slowly, there is no reluctance to use unconventional fossil resources. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century as a consequence of completion of the demographic transition. However, education investments are not high enough to accelerate the transition to low fertility rates in low-income countries and to rapidly slow population growth. This growth, along with income inequality that persists or improves only slowly, continuing societal stratification, and limited social cohesion, maintain challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes and constrain significant advances in sustainable development. These moderate development trends leave the world, on average, facing moderate challenges to mitigation and adaptation, but with significant heterogeneities across and within countries. 4 Additional Information Motivating forces: In this world, socio-economic development occurs at moderate rates on average, but with substantial differences on a regional level. Development of low-income countries proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others do less well. Moderate corruption levels and limited access to the rule of law slows the effectiveness of development policies. Policies, institutions and social conditions: There is moderate awareness of the environmental consequences of choices when using natural resources. There is relatively weak coordination and cooperation among national and international institutions, the private sector, and civil society for addressing environmental concerns. While local environmental concerns, such as air quality, rank high on the agenda of many countries, implementation lags behind the ambitions. Globally this leads to an intermediate pathway for pollutant emissions. Human development: There is some progress towards universal education, but education investments are not high enough to rapidly slow population growth, particularly in low-income countries. Access to health care and safe water and improved sanitation in low-income countries makes unsteady progress, with some countries benefiting from the resulting improvements to population health and productivity. Gender equality and equity slowly improve, particularly in countries with more sustainable development. Economy and lifestyles: Moderate rates of development are reflected in economic growth patterns, with high growth for some low-income countries. Emerging economies continue their rapid development for an initial period, but experience a slowdown in growth rates as their economies mature. High-income countries continue to grow at moderate rates. As a result, per- capita income levels grow at a medium pace on the global average, with slow convergence of relative income levels between the bulk of developing and industrialized countries. Most countries are politically stable and associated globally connected markets function imperfectly. The flow of information and global access to markets are rather well established in most countries, although entry barriers to agricultural markets are reduced only slowly. Consumption is oriented towards material growth, with growing consumption of animal products. Income distributions within regions improve with increasing national income, but inequities remain high in some regions. Poverty is a challenge for many disadvantaged populations conditions of extreme poverty particularly so. Tensions within and between countries periodically threaten to boil over, but do so only rarely, and never catastrophically. Conflicts over environmental resources flare where and when there are high levels of food and/or water insecurity coupled with political and economic instability Population and urbanization: Population growth is moderate, with higher growth in low-income countries, slowing population growth in middle-income countries, and limited to negative population growth in most industrialized countries. Migration between countries continues at intermediate levels owing to the restriction of labor markets, but there are intermittent periods of 5 greater international migration when populations are challenged by food insecurity, conflict, and other factors. Urbanization proceeds at rates and in patterns consistent with historical experience in different world regions. Urbanization is particularly transformative in East and South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The transformation of cities resulting from the introduction of sustainable energy technologies and associated design proceeds at differing rates, with the highest rates in developed or rapidly developing urban contexts. Environment and resources: Fossil fuel dependency slowly decreases, but access to global oil and gas markets continues to play a large role in international relations. Growing energy demand and no reluctance to use unconventional fossil sources lead to continuing environmental degradation even with reductions in resource and energy intensity. There is less progress in low- income countries. Moderate regulation of land use leads to a slow decline in the rate of deforestation. Technology: There is some international cooperation and investment in research and technology on providing access to modern energy and promoting sustainable development. However, new energy and agricultural technologies developed in industrialized countries are only slowly shared with middle- and low-income countries, in part because of challenges to resolving intellectual property rights, legal rights, and other issues with technology transfer. Challenges: Mitigation challenges are moderate in this pathway with a semi-open globalized economy and only moderate transformation toward environmentally friendly processes. Limits to mitigative capacity include the continued reliance on fossil fuels, including unconventional oil and gas resources, limited progress toward a urban sustainability transition, the moderate pace of technological change in the energy and agricultural sectors, and challenges in global cooperation on environmental issues. Challenges to adaptation are moderate as global population growth, along with persisting income inequality (globally and within economies), societal stratification, urban growth in exposed and vulnerable locations, and limited social cohesion, maintain challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes. Food and water insecurity continue to be problems in disadvantaged areas of low-income countries. There is only intermediate success in addressing air pollution or improving energy access for the poor as well as other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes. SSP 3: Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road Sketch A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. This trend is reinforced by the limited number of comparatively weak global institutions, with uneven coordination and cooperation for 6 addressing environmental and other global concerns. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues, including barriers to trade, particularly in the energy resource and agricultural markets. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions at the expense of broader-based development, and in several regions move toward more authoritarian forms of government with highly regulated economies. Investments in education and technological development decline. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time, especially in developing countries. There are pockets of extreme poverty alongside pockets of moderate wealth, with many countries struggling to maintain living standards and provide access to safe water, improved sanitation, and health care for disadvantaged populations. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions. The combination of impeded development and limited environmental concern results in poor progress toward sustainability. Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries. Growing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency along with difficulty in achieving international cooperation and slow technological change imply high challenges to mitigation. The limited progress on human development, slow income growth, and lack of effective institutions, especially those that can act across regions, implies high challenges to adaptation for many groups in all regions. Additional Information Motivating forces: Growing concerns with respect to international competitiveness and national security, aided by renewed interest in regional identity and culture, push societies to become more skeptical about globalization and increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues and interests. These developments lead step by step and over time to a world that is separated into regional blocks of countries with little interaction between them, resembling the Cold War period from 1945-1990, but with multiple poles. Competition, including periodic direct and proxy occurrences of conflict between regional blocs, results in weak progress in achieving sustainable development goals. Policies, institutions and social conditions: Due to the focus on national security and sovereignty, government institutions dominate societal decision-making. Authoritarian regimes emerge or are strengthened in many parts of the world, leading on balance to diminished effectiveness of institutions. The remaining participatory societies are increasingly bound by a strong ethic of supporting national priorities. A considerable level of corruption results from the entanglement of the private and public sectors. Environmental policies have a very low priority in this world. 7 Global governance and institutions are weak, with a lack of cooperation and consensus; effective global leadership and capacities for problem solving are largely absent. Human development: Investments in education are low and access to health care, safe water, and improved sanitation is limited, leading to large and poor populations in low-income countries with increasing burdens of preventable diseases, with limited opportunities for improving the situation. Gender equality and equity change little over the century. Economy and lifestyles: Slow economic growth in all regions results from, among other factors, little international cooperation and low investments in education and in technology for development. Development proceeds slowly, with high inequalities across countries and persistent inequality within countries. There are pockets of extreme poverty alongside pockets of moderate wealth, with many countries struggling to maintain living standards. Trends work against the reduction of social stratification, with little improvement for disadvantaged population groups. Inequities are especially prevalent in cities. Consumption is material intensive. The world has de-globalized, and international trade, including energy resource and agricultural markets, is restricted because of security concerns. Population and urbanization: Overall, global population growth is high as a result of the low education trends, slow economic development, and stalled demographic transitions, particularly in developing countries. At the same time, mortality rates are high in developing countries, with many children dying from preventable diseases (malnutrition, diarrheal disease, malaria). In high-income countries, economic uncertainty leads to low fertility. Combined with low levels of international migration, this leads to rapid aging in industrialized countries. Urbanization is slow in all regions, due to slow economic growth that limits employment opportunities in urban areas, low international migration, and development patterns that make urban areas unattractive destinations for rural populations. However, disadvantaged populations continue to move to poorly planned settlements around large urban areas, particularly in low- income countries, often in places that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events. Technology: In general, technology development is very slow due to low investment levels and with very limited transfer of new technologies to other regions. Energy technology change is also slow and mostly directed to the exploitation of domestic fossil resources to improve energy security. Agricultural technology development is slow, especially with very limited transfer to developing countries. Environment and resources: A low priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to serious degradation of the environment in some regions. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own region. There is a push to maintain domestic energy supplies and develop unconventional fossil fuel resources. Domestic markets are highly regulated and uncompetitive. With little regulation in place, there is continued deforestation due to competition over land and rapid expansion of agriculture. 8 Challenges: Challenges to mitigation are high because of continued energy demand driven in part by high population growth and little progress in efficiency. Use of domestic energy resources results in some regions relying heavily on fossil fuels. More importantly, the absence of institutions to facilitate global cooperative action and limited governance resources, low technological capacity, and little investment in research and development lead to low mitigative capacity. Challenges to adaptation are high because of highly vulnerable human and natural systems; because global governance, institutions, and leadership are relatively weak in addressing the multiple dimensions of vulnerability; and because institutional effectiveness within regions and countries is mixed at best. Low investments in human capital contribute to high vulnerability. Meager progress on development goals results in poorly educated populations in some regions, with many disadvantaged populations without access to safe water, improved sanitation, polluted air, health care, and other factors that increase vulnerability. These factors lead to low adaptive capacity in many parts of the world. SSP 4: Inequality – A Road Divided Sketch Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an internationally-connected society that is well educated and contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a labor intensive, low-tech economy. Power becomes more concentrated in a relatively small political and business elite, even in democratic societies, while vulnerable groups have little representation in national and global institutions. Economic growth is moderate in industrialized and middle-income countries, while low income countries lag behind, in many cases struggling to provide adequate access to water, sanitation and health care for the poor. Social cohesion degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common. Technology development is high in the high-tech economy and sectors. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel markets lead to underinvestment in new resources in many regions of the world. Energy companies hedge against price fluctuations partly through diversifying their energy sources, with investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil, but also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle and high income areas. The combination of some development of low carbon supply options and expertise, and a well-integrated international political and business class capable of acting quickly and decisively, implies low challenges to mitigation. Challenges 9 to adaptation are high for the substantial proportions of populations at low levels of development and with limited access to effective institutions for coping with economic or environmental stresses. Additional Information Motivating forces: In this world inequalities increase, both between and within countries, driven mainly by a combination of skill-biased technology development and reduced access to higher education. The technological development is rapid, favors entrepreneurial individuals and those with post-secondary education, and leads to less demand for unskilled labor. This enables economic growth to be supported by a relatively small proportion of the population with high education, reinforcing the trend toward inequality. On a large scale, this is seen as increasing socioeconomic fragmentation—between world regions, between nations within regions, and between sub-national regions and groups— continuing and accelerating trends that could be seen at the start of the 21st Century. The fall in inequality that was seen in some regions halts and the rise of an extremely wealthy few among the merely wealthy that began at the turn of the century continues, with wealth and income increasingly concentrated. Policies, institutions and social conditions: A large share of the population has limited access to national institutions, which focus on the globally connected high-tech economy and operate mainly in the interests of top earners and businesses. International institutions and power structures increasingly focus on and serve the needs of the globally connected economy. This concentration of power favors effective cooperation between nations and businesses to agree on and implement action if it is in their interest to do so. Vulnerable groups have little representation in these organizations and lack the capacity and resources to organize themselves. Human development: Weak political power for less-affluent groups is compounded by fewer economic opportunities, as they face limited access to credit. Among other effects, this limits opportunities for low-educated households to pursue a better education, reducing social mobility. In developing countries with less well-educated populations, public expenditures on education focus on producing a small, highly educated elite at the expense of broader-based investments in education, leading to much slower growth of the middle class than would otherwise be expected and in many cases worsening income inequality. Economy and lifestyles: The most distinctive aspect of the economy is its divergence both within and across countries into a high-tech, knowledge- and capital-intensive economy to which the relatively well off and highly educated parts of the population belong, and a low-tech, labor- intensive economy in which the substantial fraction of the population that is less well off participates. The high-tech economy globalizes with highly connected international businesses and workers and open trade, but many people are left outside this system. In general the absolute income of all or most people increases, but the relative position of many—in some countries, the 10 majority—worsens. At the national level, economic growth tends to be medium in industrialized and middle-income countries, while low-income countries lag, with slow economic growth. As a consequence, most middle-income countries see their per capita incomes gradually converge toward those of the high-income countries, while most low-income countries (and some middle income countries) are left behind. However, there are distinct leading and lagging economies even within each of these groups and in nearly all countries income inequality increases. The global middle class, which was expanding rapidly at the turn of the century, still expands, but sluggishly, as economic gains at the low end of the global income distribution begin to slow. Support for those in the middle classes falters, with weakening social security measures and poorly regulated labor markets. The high and middle income groups have fairly high consumption lifestyles, but the low income groups are limited to low consumption levels and very limited mobility. Population and urbanization: In industrialized countries, economic uncertainty for most of the population leads to relatively low fertility and low population growth, and in some cases decline with a medium pace of urbanization but with accelerated population deconcentration. In low- and middle-income countries, urbanization rates remains high. In low-income countries this is induced by the large cohorts of young people in rural areas that result from high fertility rates as well as by a lack of promising employment opportunities and increasing security concern in rural areas. In all countries, the richer group physically separates itself from the poorer population, moving to enclaves within cities with a high demand for skilled labor and (mainly in the wealthier countries) smaller towns with highly specialized job markets. In low and middle- income countries, physical separation is partly reflected in large and growing peri-urban slums. Rural areas and less-favored urban areas are largely, although not entirely, left behind by these developments. Migration is high for richer groups, but difficult for low-income groups. Due to the lack of access to health care and other services, mortality is relatively high for poorer groups, especially in low-income countries, but also for those poorer groups in medium and high income countries. Technology: Within the high-tech economy, technology development and diffusion are rapid, with high transfer rates between countries and firms. However, outside this main economic system, technology diffusion is slow and people rely more on local resources. Social instability of cities including increasing economic inequities and diminished governance capacity result in limited ability to experiment with and implement new sustainability energy technology on a widespread basis. Informal energy economies and procurement strategies in urban areas further limit the progression toward energy sustainability. Environment and resources: Environmental awareness is mainly limited to the direct living areas of middle and high-earning groups, while little attention paid to global environmental problems and their implications for poorer groups in society. As a consequence, there is a stark division in environmental conditions. On the one hand, there are areas that the world cares about, close to living areas of middle and high-earning groups and where these groups spend their vacations, 11 which are well-managed and environmentally clean. On the other hand, resource and production areas and many other places that are out of sight do not get much attention and become deteriorate. Energy resources are strongly affected by oligopolistic structures in the fossil fuel market, which lead to underinvestment in opening up new resources in many regions of the world, causing oil and gas prices to rise and volatility to increase due to changes in demand and disruptions of supply. In this uncertain environment, companies diversify into carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil, but also low-carbon energy sources. Renewable technologies benefit from the high technology development, bringing them to competitive cost levels with fossil energy sources. The low-carbon energy projects that succeed are typically those that provide large private returns. These well-funded risk-mitigation strategies drive a new era of innovation that provides effective and well-tested energy technologies, but are often pursued without adequate protection of affected groups. Those groups lose assets and livelihoods, which increases their vulnerability to climate change. For agriculture, the productive areas of the world are dominated by industrialized agriculture and monocultural production. Crop yields would be typically high in large-scale industrial farming, but low for small-scale farming. Food trade is global, but access to markets is limited, increasing vulnerability for non-connected population groups. Land use is highly regulated in high and middle income countries, but largely unmanaged in low-income coutries leading to tropical deforestation. Challenges to mitigation are low in this world due to the pool of expertise and technologies that can be rapidly brought to bear if there is a strong push towards lower emissions. The concentration of power, especially to global businesses, enables them to develop and apply effective climate policies, once it is in their interest to act. Challenges to adaptation are high, given the relatively high inequality and substantial proportions of populations at low levels of development and with limited access to effective institutions for coping with economic or environmental stresses. SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway Sketch Driven by the economic success of industrialized and emerging economies, this world places increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid technological progress and development of human capital as the path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly integrated, with interventions focused on maintaining competition and removing institutional barriers to the participation of disadvantaged population groups. There are also strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same time, the push for 12 economic and social development is coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary. While local environmental impacts are addressed effectively by technological solutions, there is relatively little effort to avoid potential global environmental impacts due to a perceived tradeoff with progress on economic development. Global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Though fertility declines rapidly in developing countries, fertility levels in high income countries are relatively high (at or above replacement level) due to optimistic economic outlooks. International mobility is increased by gradually opening up labor markets as income disparities decrease. The strong reliance on fossil fuels and the lack of global environmental concern result in potentially high challenges to mitigation. The attainment of human development goals, robust economic growth, and highly engineered infrastructure results in relatively low challenges to adaptation to any potential climate change for all but a few. Additional Information Motivating forces: Two major factors enable a break with historical patterns that showed a lack of regional convergence in institutional arrangements and economic growth. First, the economic success of emerging economies and more recently least developed countries gives rise to an emergent global middle class that has been lacking in most regions of the world. The new middle class stabilizes global economic development by promoting robust growth in demand for services and goods especially in cities. The new middle class also fosters the more widespread adoption of world views oriented towards market solutions and participatory societies in many world regions. In particular, developing countries aim to follow the fossil- and resource-intensive development model of the industrialized countries. Second, the digital revolution enables a global discourse of a significant and increasing share of the population for the first time in human history leading to a rapid rise in global institutions and promoting the ability for global coordination. Policies, institutions and social conditions: On a national and regional level, institutional changes are initiated to foster competitive markets, leading – by and large – to more effective institutions with lower levels of corruption, strong rule of law, and the removal of market entry barriers for disadvantaged population groups. Social cohesion, gender equality, and political participation are strengthened in most world regions. As a consequence, social conflicts are gradually decreased, although the more pervasive adoption of participatory and market oriented world views creates significant tension with traditional views during a transition phase. On the international level, countries pursue a global “development first” agenda and increasingly 13 cooperate on economic, development, and security policies. Regional conflicts are met with assertive international action, and decline with rapid development and decreasing levels of social conflict. Institutions that further market penetration and lower trade barriers are strengthened, leading to accelerated globalization and high levels of international trade. International cooperation on environmental policies is much more limited due to a perceived trade-off between development and environmental goals for global, long-term issues. Human development: Development policies emphasizing education and health are put in place to accelerate human capital development. These policies, aided by rapid economic development, lead to a strong reduction of extreme poverty and significantly improved access to education, safe drinking water and modern energy in the medium term. Economy and lifestyles: Economies become increasingly globalized over time with high levels of international trade. The gross world product at the end of the century is very high. Per capita incomes in developing countries increase rapidly, leading to strong convergence of interregional income distributions and a measurable decline of income inequality within regions. At the same time industrialized countries continue their focus on economic growth, driven in part by consumerism and resource-intensive status consumption, including a preference for individual mobility, meat-rich diets, and tourism and recreation. Developing countries rapidly adopt these consumption patterns. Population and urbanization: Global population peaks and declines in the 21st century, a result of rapid fertility declines in developing countries driven by improving education, health, and economic conditions. In high income countries, fertility is above replacement due to optimistic outlooks for economic conditions. International mobility is increased by gradually opening up labor markets as income disparities decrease. Migration from poorer to wealthier countries buffers the effect of aging populations in industrialized countries. All regions reach high levels of urbanization. Urban planning and land use management play crucial roles, but struggle to keep up with the rapid migration of rural population into cities in the first few decades of the century. While urbanization rates converge over time, urban structure and form develop in different world regions to reflect historic patterns and prevailing local and national policies. This includes dense mega-cities in densely populated countries, and large metropolitan areas with significant urban sprawl in other regions of the world. Technology: Technological progress is seen as a major driver of development and economic growth. Fostered by widespread technology optimism, investments in technological innovation are very high, with a focus on increasing labor productivity, fossil energy supply, and managing the natural environment. In continuation of the current shale revolution, fossil resource extraction is maximized at low cost, and local externalities of fossil energy production (e.g. health effects) are well controlled by continued technological advancements in the fossil energy sector. Due to the strong reliance on fossil energy, alternative energy sources are not actively pursued. Environment and resources: Environmental consciousness exists on the local scale, and is focused on end-of-pipe engineering solutions for local environmental problems that have 14 obvious impacts on well-being, such as air and water pollution particularly in urban settings. On the other hand, individualistic lifestyles give rise to local opposition against engineering solutions that affect local environments (NIMBY). Agro-ecosystems become more and more managed in all world regions, facilitated by productivity improvements and the diffusion of resource-intensive management practices in the agricultural sector. The resulting large increases in agricultural productivity and a peaking and declining world population can support high per capita food consumption and meat-rich diets globally. However, some deforestation continues due to incomplete regulations. In the long run, land and environmental systems are highly managed across the world, and there is a general tendency to decouple human-engineered systems from natural systems as much as possible. Challenges: The strong reliance on fossil fuels and the lack of global environmental concern result in potentially high challenges to mitigation. The attainment of human development goals, robust economic growth, and highly engineered infrastructures results in relatively low challenges to adaptation for all but a few. 15